Louisville vs. Kentucky

Obviously this pick isn't going out on a limb. You might wonder why I'm releasing such a big favorite. It again comes down to value. Not all 4.5 to 1 favorites are good bets. In fact, most aren't long term. For a -460 bet to be a good bet, it needs to win over 82% of the time. The reality is that most big favorites don't hit that mark. For this game, I believe we have a 90%+ chance of winning, meaning we have value at this line. Not excited to lay 4.6 to win 1? I understand that. But just consider, if you do that, you are getting a very good return on investment if it wins - and it is extremely likely to win. And why look at a good return as a bad investment? If we risk 4.6 to win 1 here, we get a 22% ROI on our investment. Outside of sports betting, where else can you get a 90%+ chance at a 22% return in one day (nowhere I can think of)? Why do I like this bet? I've talked about a moneyline system I have for the NCAA Tournament and this game qualifies. Certain (not all) big favorites in later rounds in the tourney almost never lose. They may not cover the spread, but they win their games nearly every time out. After going 11-0 so far this year, this system is now 56-3 over the past nine years. That's a win rate of 95%. I also have a separate CBB tournament system that is 135-20 including 25-2 this year that fits this game. Do we have any reason to believe this game will be different? Is there any reason to believe Louisville has much of a chance to pull of this upset? Not really. This Wildcats team has only lost twice all season. On the road they are 18-2 winning on average 74 to 61. Unfortunately they are just 10-10 ATS on the road and 16-21 ATS overall. This is one reason why I don't see any real value either way on the spread in this game. I give each team about a 50% chance of covering the spread. But winning outright is an entirely different story. Kentucky has held opponents this year to just 38% shooting and that doesn't bode well for the Cardinals. While they went 21-0 vs. teams with defenses that allow 43%+ shooting, Louisville went just 9-9 this season vs. teams that allow under 43% from the field. As good as Rick Pitino is, his teams are just barely over .500 on the road vs. winning teams in his career. Meanwhile, Calipari is 52-14 with Louisville as a favorite so letdowns with him on the sideline are uncommon. In March games, the Wildcats are 21-2 under Calipari! While I don't see any real value on either of the Final Four games against the spread, I really like the value here backing Kentucky to win outright. Lay 4 units on them to win this game.