This pick was released to clients on September 27, 2012 at 8:31PM ET.
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Louisville at Illinois

April 2, 2005
img6:05 PM Eastern
Premium Pick

Off unbelievable Elite Eight victories the Illinois Fighting Illini and the Louisville Cardinals earned the right to battle in the Final Four at St. Louis with the winner heading to the National Title game April 4th. The winner will take on North Carolina or Michigan State. In the Regional final, the Fighting Illini spotted the Arizona Wildcats fifteen points with four minutes left to play then went on a 20-5 run, tying it on Deron Williams's three-pointer. They held on in OT to hand a crushing defeat to the Wildcats. But, the close call sent Fighting Illini backers scurrying to the ATM machine rather than the cash window for the second time in the tournament and the fifth time last eight on the hardwood (3-5 ATS). Not to be outdone, Louisville advanced to the Final Four with it's own second-half rally scoring fifty erasing a 13-point half-time deficit on the way to a 93-85 OT win against Mountaineers. Louisville, thanks in part to Brandon Jenkins missing his exclamation point 'Dunk' at the end of the game, cost the Cardinals the cover marking a 2-2 ATS tourney record and a dismal 5-11 ATS mark it's last sixteen games. The stage is set for a great matchup. Louisville (33-4 SU, 18-15-1 ATS) has the likes of Francisco Garcia and Taquan Dean who will surely be tossing 3-pointers all night and Illinois (36-1 SU, 15-13-2 ATS) has Dee Brown, Deron Williams and Luther Head who are all quick, can rebound and score from anywhere on the floor. Illinois opened as 2 1/2 point favorites which may give Fighting Illini backers some concerned knowing teams who scored 80 or more in Elite Eight Round are 8-16 ATS in the Final Four including a dismal 1-8 against-the-spread as favorites the last nine years. Also, the Cardinals are 6-0 ATS as an underdog, 17-6 ATS off 3+ non-conference games. Either team can win this game so we'll do the logical thing and back the underdog, getting 3 points. Three stars on the Cardinals.

3 units on Louisville +3 (-110) (risk 3 to return 5.73)
Result:
LOSS
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