Louisiana Tech at Florida State

I can't trust this Florida State team that has underachieved all season, especially when they're supposed to win as a #1 seed in this NIT tourney. They struggled down the stretch in unimpressive fashion, getting blown out by Syracuse, losing by double-digits in the opening round of the ACC tourney, and are just 8-8 their last 16 games. The Seminoles are 4-10 ATS against a team with a winning record and 1-9 ATS against a team with a winning percentage above .600. Florida State is #200 in the nation in scoring, and hasn't been beating teams by many points, with four of their last six wins by 5, 2, 4 and 5 points. They are facing a very good team in #3 seed La. Tech - one of the most explosive offensive teams in the country. The Bulldogs average 81 points per game to go with 39.4 rebounds per game (both #15 in the nation). They come off a road win at an SEC school, beating Georgia 79-71 in a game that wasn't even that close. Louisiana Tech made seven of its first eight 3-point attempts while taking a 39-13 lead. La. Tech is 10-4 on the road and 5-2 ATS against a team with a winning record. The wrong team is favored here, so play Louisiana Tech to win outright.