Kentucky at North Carolina

The 2011 NCAA Tournament has produced more upsets and strange happenings than any in recent memory. But in the East region, we have two mainstays steeped in history in Kentucky and UNC. These two clubs have combined for 209 NCAA tournament wins, 31 Final Four appearances and 12 national titles. So there is some anticipation for this game. UNC was supposed to be here. They had two "home" games vs. Long Island and Washington, and then got some luck to face an 11 seed last round. After lackluster performances vs. LIU and Washington, the Tar Heels cruised by Marquette, winning by 18 points. Kentucky wasn't supposed to be here. Ohio State was. But, we can't take anything away from the Wildcats who beat the consensus No. 1 seed last round, 62-60. With that game under their belt, this team will fear no one and I like them to advance past the Tar Heels. Yes, North Carolina won their last game in convincing fashion. But, that was vs. an overmatched Marquette team and prior to that North Carolina didn't perform great in the first two rounds. Really, the Tar Heels are not playing great basketball. Over their last five games they have allowed an average of 79 points per game including 83 to Washington and 87 to LIU. Compare that to Kentucky who is averaging just 58.4 per game allowed over the same span. Let's face it, this is NC's first real test of the tournament and I expect them to fold. Dating back to last season, Roy Williams' team has gone just 5-13 ATS on the road vs. elite teams (those outscoring their opponents by 8+ ppg). These teams met in December with North Carolina winning at home by just 2 points. John Calipari is 12-3 ATS revenging a road loss and I think he gets his revenge here. I also like the UNDER in this game as this total is set quite high. Kentucky is playing great defense. They have held four of their last five opponents to 60 or less and that includes Ohio State, Florida and Alabama. This will be an intense game and defense will play a role. The Wildcats are 29-17 UNDER the past two seasons vs. very good teams (those outscoring opponents by 4+ per game). North Carolina is 10-3 UNDER vs. teams that are good from beyond the arc (those making 37%+ of long-range shots). They are also 25-10 UNDER since last season vs. teams that hit 45%+ from the field. In revenge games, Calipari is 26-10 UNDER in his last 36. That includes a 16-5 UNDER mark when the loss saw his opponent score 75+ points. Take Kentucky and the UNDER here.