Kentucky at Louisville

Kentucky has been playing good defense this year - at home. At home they have allowed 54 ppg. But on the road, they are giving up 74.4 - a full 20 ppg more. They have gone UNDER 3-0-1 at home while going OVER three out of five on the road. Lousiville puts up scores in bunches as they average 77.5 on the season and 82 ppg at home. Two things are dragging this line down. First off, seven of the last eight in this series have gone UNDER. But those games averaged a total of 147. This line is set a full 11.5 points lower! Over-compensation, plain and simple. Secondly, Kentucky is off a 59-54 performance vs. Indiana. Low scoring for sure. But with Smith at the helm, Kentucky is 13-5 OVER after a low-scoring game (115 or less total points) including 6-0 to the OVER most recently. Take the value here and go OVER.