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Kansas at North Carolina

April 5, 2008
img8:47 PM Eastern
Premium Pick

For the first time in the history of the NCAA Tournament, all four No. 1 seeds have made it through to the Final Four. Kansas will enter this game scoring 80.6 points per game and winners of 11 straight. Carolina comes in averaging 89.2 ppg and winners of 15 straight, so something has got to give tonight. This is a game that will be played NBA style - with lots of transition scoring and future NBA players all over the court for both teams. This will be a tough spot for Kansas, because they will be playing a team that likes to run like they do, but one that just simply does it better, faster and more consistent. Kansas has had a good draw thus far in the tourney as they have faced teams that pretty much play a half-court game and can't run with them. When Kansas has allowed 70 points this season they are 3-5 ATS, and at the same time when they play to a total of 150+, they are 2-4 ATS. It shows they have not been involved with many games projected to score as this one does, and when teams score on them they have difficulty getting the money. Carolina is 11-4 ATS when they are only a single digit favorite, and at times played disinterested this season, but when the competition is high, they have been at their best. They are also 11-3 ATS over teams in this year's tourney. A big bonus for Carolina is their top four FT-shooters all connect at 80% or higher, so no lead is going to be melted away at the FT-line down the stretch, if anything it will be extended. On the other hand Kansas does not have a single 80%+ FT-shooter on their roster and has shot poorly at the line in the tournament at just 63%. This game is likely to be played at break-neck speed and Carolina just doesn't lose those kinds of games and this will be the quickest team Kansas has seen all season. Many of these games projected to be close, often turn out to be blowouts and we believe there is a chance that could be the case in this one. Carolina rolls to The Final.

4 units on North Carolina -3 (-110) (risk 4 to return 4)
Result:
LOSS
1H
2H
T
Kansas Jayhawks
0
0
84
North Carolina Tar Heels
0
0
66
odds odds
 
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