Iowa at Virginia Tech

Iowa suffered their first loss of the season last time out, losing to a good Wichita State team. That, combined with Virginia Tech coming in undefeated with a super-high powered offense has led to the wrong team being favored here. Bettors love offense and right now they are ignoring the fact that the Hokies give up 15 more points per game than do the Hawkeyes. That's going to make the difference here. Virginia Tech has lost 17 of their last 21 home games vs. good defensive teams (teams holding opponents under 40% from the field. The Hokies have really struggled recently in expected close games, going just 1-8 ATS the past three seasons in games with a line of +3 to -3. Since last season, Virginia Tech is 5-14 straight-up vs. winning teams and I think they lose another one here. Take Iowa to win outright.