Illinois vs. Iowa State

#2 seed Iowa St. will take on the #3 seed Fighting Illini, and the Cyclones have now won and covered five straight games. While that sounds good, teams on a 5-plus SU/ATS winning streak have only covered at a rate of 40% in the Sweet 16 round. It will be the Iowa St. defense, allowing just 61.2 PPG, against the Illinois offense, averaging 84.6 PPG, and you know what they say — defense wins championships. A team in this round of the NCAA Tournament that averages 80 or more points per game is just 15-23-2 ATS. When you put them up vs. a team allowing fewer than 65 PPG they slip to 3-9-1 ATS. When any team reaches this round and is allowing fewer than 65 PPG they are 37-25-4 ATS. Make the play on Iowa St.