Illinois vs. Connecticut

Illinois won the Big Ten Conference tournament and is on a 12-2 SU, 10-4 ATS run. They knocked off Iowa State in the last game as an underdog, 72-69. The Illini have been a dog seven times this season and are 5-2 SU/6-1 ATS and on the road this season they are 15-4 straight-up including 13-4 vs. winning teams. Illinois was No. 1 in the Big Ten in points scored and rebounds. They're on an 11-3 ATS run as an underdog over and 7-1 ATS at neutral sites. The Illini is also 24-11 UNDER the total in NCAA tournament games, plus 14-3 ATS away from home versus winning teams. Connecticut is a terrific defensive team on a 9-2 run UNDER the total. They were tops in the Big East in points given up (61.4 per game) and shooting allowed (.385). UConn is 18-9 UNDER the total against winning teams, 24-14 UNDER away from home after a victory, and 11-4 UNDER after two consecutive double-digit wins. Connecticut is vulnerable here as they are just 7-17 straight-up on the road in late-season play in the Hurley era when facing elite teams like Illinois (those outscoring opponents by 8+ points per game). Back the big dog in a close, defensive duel and take this game to go UNDER the total.