Houston at East Carolina

At 12-3, the Houston Cougars look like a team ready to contend in Conference USA. That is until you look at the cream puff schedule they have played this season. This team owns 10 wins vs. very low-rated teams and conferences, so once C-USA play get going in earnest they are going to free-fall. East Carolina has lost five games on the season, but four of the five losses have come to UMass, Charlotte, North Carolina, and Memphis. Certainly, Houston isn't among or even near that class of teams. The Pirates have been under the radar and are 6-0 ATS in their last six in the conference, and the home-court edge should carry them to the win here. Play East Carolina on the moneyline.