George Mason at Wichita State

A seven seeded team is playing an eleven seed in the Sweet 16. This has only happened twice before. In 1990 Loyola-Marymount played Alabama and in 2001 Temple met Penn St. Clearly a game that everyone will have their eye on to see which of these "Cinderella" teams make it to the Elite 8. While the odds makers have made George Mason a small favorite, I feel Wichita St. is the team with the edge in this game. While these teams have similarly skilled backcourts, the frontcourt edge favors Wichita St. George Mason is a team without much depth and they get the lucky draw of playing a team like Wichita who doesn't run up and down the court. The one thing Wichita State does do however, is play solid basketball for 40 minutes in each and every game they play. This is a very hard thing to do and for that reason alone, it is rare to see such a disciplined team. Further discipline is shown by Wichita State as they had the best assist to turnover ratio and rebounding in the Missouri Valley Conference. They have had a number of wins in close games and that is exactly how I see this one ending tonight. Take Wichita getting the points and don't be shocked if they are the ones making the final shot and advance to the Elite 8.

The opening line for this total was 123 and it jumped to 124 and 125 in some books quickly. There is a reason for this jump. These two teams met earlier this season, and George Mason won by 3 and easily eclipsed the 125.5 point toal with 137 points being scored. These teams have been going UNDER near the end of the season as Wichita State comes out of the stingy defense and possession ball of the Missouri-Valley Conference, yet both teams have been putting up points as Wichita State put up 80+ against Seton Hall and Tennessee and George Mason hasn't been to shabby putting up 65 against a good UNC defense and 70+ against Michigan State. Thus, given that both teams have bene putting up an average of 70 plus in the tournament and better, the total of 124 seems appealing as they simply have to average 62 a peice and since no game total has gone under the 124 for these teams of late in the the dance. Take the OVER here.