Florida International at Western Kentucky

Florida International comes into this one with an 8-17 record. But consider their recent improvement. They are 5-4 SU and 6-2 ATS over their last night games. Meanwhile, 20-6 Western Kentucky has lost five of their last seven games ATS. Love the dog getting 15 here. FLA International is 6-5 ATS vs. common opponents to W. Kentucky's losing 5-7 mark this season. Western Kentucky has struggled recently against conference opponents, going just 8-20 ATS over the last two seasons. This line is inflated in part to Florida's last game against S. Alabama in which they managed just 51 points. But, road underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points scoring under 63ppg off a terrible offensive performance (<60 points) now facing an average defensive team (67-74 PPG) are 71-35 (67%) ATS since 1997. Florida International is 6-5 ATS on the road and have been shooting the lights out of late (for them). I think this line is off and Florida International keeps it closer than the 15 points. Five stars on Florida International.