Florida vs. Louisville

It does look strange to see a No. 7 seed in the Florida Gators as a favorite to get to the Final Four, vs. a team seeded three spots better in the Louisville Cardinals. The Gators are starting to look like UConn did last year. They finished the regular season, losing three straight times, and looked like a team that would likely make an early exit, but have found the groove. Remember that amongst the 10 losses this team has suffered, three were to Kentucky, one was to Syracuse, and one to Ohio State. So they have definitely played some people. Louisville is a similar case, but with a poor close to the regular season. They have run the table in the postseason with seven straight wins. The difference here is that the guards for Florida who are simply better than what Louisville puts on the floor, and are less prone to pressure both teams will face. The Gators are riding high in NCAA Tournament play as they are 14-3 ATS as a favorite in their last 17. Dating back to last season, Florida is also 21-9 ATS on the road vs. winning teams and 20-8 ATS on the road vs. good defensive teams like Louisville (those allowing 42% or worse from the field). Over that span, the Gators are also stellar in expected close games, going 9-2 ATS when the line is +3 to -3. Meanwhile, the Cardinals have posted poor numbers at a neutral site at just 3-10 ATS in their last 13. Play on Florida.