This pick was released to clients on March 23, 2024 at 10:16AM ET.
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Florida Atlantic vs. Tennessee

March 23, 2023
img9:35 PM Eastern
Premium Pick

A pair of southern teams head north to New York playing stellar defense. Florida Atlantic has allowed 70 and 65 points in two tournament games. They won the Conference USA tournament allowing 65, 56, and 51 points with all three going UNDER the total. During the regular season, Florida Atlantic was third in the conference in points given up (65.1 ppg), plus second in field goal shooting allowed (40.2%) and at defending beyond the arc (31.6%). They're on a 7-5 run UNDER the First Half Total. And neutral court teams like the Owls that have won 15+ of their last 20 in the Sweet 16 round are 29-7 UNDER the First Half Total. Florida Atlantic has a backcourt that matches up well against Tennessee in 6-4 Johnell Davis (13.9 ppg) and Alijah Martin (13.1 ppg). The Owls beat Florida of the SEC earlier in the season, 76-74, as a +12 road dog, while Tennessee lost to Florida, 67-54, as a favorite. Florida Atlantic is on a 22-12 spread run, including 9-2 ATS in non-conference action. Tennessee is third in the nation in points given up (57.8 ppg) and field-goal shooting allowed (37.2%), while leading the country in 3-point defense (26.4%). In their two NCAA Tournament contests, they've allowed just 53.5 points per game. Tennessee is 17-8 UNDER the First Half Total versus winning teams, including 17-7 UNDER against teams that outscore their opponents by 4+ points per game. With Tennessee coach Rick Barnes 13-30 ATS away from home versus teams that commit 12 or fewer turnovers 15+ games into the season, back the dog for the game in what will be a defensive first half. Take Florida Atlantic + First Half UNDER the total.

1 unit on Florida Atlantic +5.5 (-110) (risk 1 to return 1.91)
Result:
WIN
1 unit on 1st ½ Total UNDER 59 -110 (risk 1 to return 1.91)
Result:
WIN
FINAL
1H
2H
F
Florida Atlantic Owls img
22
40
62
Tennessee Volunteers
27
28
55
consensus consensus
odds odds
 
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