Duke vs. Louisville

Both of these coaches have a history of playing deep into the tournament, so neither team should be excessively tight in this game. Louisville is the #1 see overall, and has played like it thus far with three easy wins. They get a lot off their pressure defense, but I think a lot of that will be negated by the Duke backcourt with Sulaimon, Curry, Thornton and Cook keeping control of the ball. The quartet of guards has 382 assists to just 202 turnovers on the season. Duke turns the ball over just 10.4 times per game on the season. And, this team shoots the ball better than any team Louisville has seen this season. The top three Blue Devils scorers all shoot 46% or better on the season. Duke also has five players that hit better than 38% from beyond the arc - something Louisville has not seen all season. Duke isn't as good defensively as they have been in the past having allowed seven teams in ACC play to top 70 on them. Most of those were the good teams in the league, so I expect this one to play a lot higher scoring than what most think. Duke is now 8-2 ATS in their last 10 on a neutral site. Louisville has now gone OVER nine straight times on a neutral court and seven straight OVER overall. Play on Duke, and take the OVER.