Duke at Virginia

Let's set the stage for this pick. How big is the Duke vs. North Carolina game? It means everything to the fans, coaches, recruitment, and players. How distracting is it to the players knowing it is their next game on the schedule? EXTREMLY! Duke is about as dominant of a home team as there is in the country. Since the 2000-01 season, they have lost just seven games at home covering almost eight years. The seven losses have come the following ways. They have lost two to NC, one to Maryland, and get this, four to teams immediately preceding their big game against NC! The fact is that they have lost more home games in this spot than they have in over 100 other home games! That is four out of 10, to 1 out of 88 other games not involving NC! So how have they fared on the road, since they are playing this game in Charlottesville? They have dropped three of five and one of the wins was in OT, and is 1-4 ATS. Overall they are 3-12 ATS before NC! This class of SR's 0-5! They aren't just failing to cover these games, they are not coming close. In their 12 ATS losses before NC, Duke has failed to cover the spread by an average of 10.9 points per game! Virginia got off to a horrific start in ACC play, but has since covered five straight including four straight as a dog. Remember, they lost to NC by just one during this rejuvenated stretch. Overall, Duke has been struggling on the road. They escaped with a one point, come-from-behind win at NC State, lost at Miami and were blown out by Wake Forest. Think at the very least Virginia comes close here, if not getting the outright win.