Davidson at Wisconsin

This game, as is the case in most Badger games, has ugly written all over it. Wisconsin certainly doesn't win with offense as they average just 67.6 ppg. Their calling card is defense. They allow just 53.9 ppg, rank 3rd in the country in FG percentage defense at 38%, allowing just 30.5% from beyond the arc. The one thing that Wisconsin hasn't seen is a player that puts up and makes three pointers on the level of Stephon Curry. The Big 10 has not a single player with 100 made threes, and no team on the Badger schedule has either. Drew Neitzel is about as close as you can find, and he hit 4-for-10 from deep, scoring 26 in a 2-point game in the Big-10 Tourney. This season the Badgers faced a total of five players in the top 100 in terms of made three pointers on the season. Those players performed good, shooting 36.1% in nine games. So don't buy it when the stuffed suits tell you that Curry will be shut down here. Davidson won't be intimidated, not by a long shot. They have already played two #1 seeds, and two #2 seeds on the road (North Carolina, Duke, UCLA, Georgetown). They played good in those games, losing by an average of just 4.5 points per game, and all of those teams are better than Wisconsin. For the most part the Wildcats played on the others' home-court. When they got Georgetown on a neutral floor, they won. Davidson can play at any speed. They have gone 6-1 ATS in their lined games with a total in the 130s or less, and have played five of the last six UNDER the total. Wisconsin has not played a game with over 128 points scored since mid-February, and has played eight of the last nine UNDER. They have played 24-13 to the UNDER in their last nine post-season appearances. Finally, this decade in 3rd round NCAA Tournament games, all nine games posted with a total of UNDER 130 have gone UNDER. Davidson has shown they belong, from their early season games vs top teams and their tournament so far. Curry has averaged 30 ppg vs the five top teams on their schedule (UCLA, NC, Georgetown, Gonzaga, and Duke). We like the Wildcats with upset potential getting points and the UNDER.