Columbia at Providence

Providence is coming in off two big wins vs BC, and George Washington. Columbia returns a veteran team that got bounced at Duke by 43 points. That is nothing new as they lost there a few years ago by over 50. So why then was Columbia just a 25 point dog at Duke and now a 19.5 dog at Providence? Is Columbia that bad? Are the odds-makers saying that Duke is only 5.5 points better than Providence? Not exactly. What they are saying is the perception of these two teams have changed. Providence beats GW by 19, and BC by 9, while Columbia loses at Duke by 43, so why not 19.5? This is where the value is found! This is a serious overlay. Providence off of two huge wins back to back at home is not going to play this game at the same level as they did the last two. Columbia has an opportunity here to take on a prominent conference foe, and will give a solid 40 minute effort. This is the same Providence team that lost to Brown at home by 10 this year. The fact is Providence has taken on seven Ivy opponents since 2001-02 and have beaten none of them by this point-spread. They lost two outright, none of which were Penn or Princeton. Columbia (outside of Duke), has done superb playing in games against prominent teams. Let's take a quick glimpse: Syracuse, Providence, UCLA, Manhattan, Villanova, California, NC State, Notre Dame, UMass, Villanova again and Rutgers. These are all the named programs Columbia has faced in the past 5 years. They covered all the big 19+ point lines in 10 of 11! They lost to all of these teams by less than tonight's point-spread of 19.5 except one against Rutgers. Sure looks like an overlay to us, and we will grab the bushel of points, and back the Lions.