Cincinnati at Houston

Cincinnati is third in the AAC defensively allowing 65.4 points per game, fourth in field goal defense. Cincinnati is 75-36-2 UNDER the total on the road against teams with winning home marks. Cincinnati comes off a two-point loss to South Florida, 56-54, with plenty to play for just one game ahead of East Carolina in the standings. The Houston Cougars have been the best defensive team this season allowing 59.5 points per contest while holding opponents to a 36.85% average. Houston is 89-62 UNDER the total against teams that attempt 21 or more three-pointers per game, plus 74-36 UNDER at home versus opponents who allow 42% or less. With Houston 13-28 ATS after four straight games committing 11 or fewer turnovers, back the big dog in a low-scoring defensive duel. Take Cincinnati with the points and UNDER the total.