Butler at Connecticut

It has been an NCAA Tournament right out of the title March Madness. This will be a Cinderella story regardless of the outcome. Butler, a mid-major, will be playing in the Championship game for the second straight year (unheard of). UConn has won the title twice since 1999, but was not expected to do much this season with the departure of six players in Dyson, Robinson, Edwards, Majok and a pair of transfers. This team was selected 10th in the Big East! It has been an amazing ride for the Huskies, but the Cinderella shoes that didn't quite fit Butler last season, will fit this year. Butler dropped a heartbreaking 2-point loss to Duke in last year's tournament finale, but they could have won that game. They didn't get the trophy but they got valuable Final 4 and Championship experience. This year they have the talent, toughness and experience to pull it off. This is a Butler team that, because of the fact they are not a major conference team, gets disrespected by the public and thus, the oddsmakers. But make no mistake about it - the Bulldogs are a great program that continually exceeds expectations. Butler is 18-5 ATS this season vs. winning teams and a perfect 10-0 ATS on a neutral court. But, here is a real mind-blowing stat on the Bulldogs. The last 21 times they have played as an underdog of +3 or more points they are 20-1 ATS! If that isn't good enough, the one loss was by 5 points as a +4.5 underdog, and that game went into overtime! So they are 21-0 ATS as a 3+ dog in regulation. The lone blemish in any game was by a half point. Butler is also 22-4-2 ATS in their last 28 vs. teams with a winning percentage of greater than .600. The Huskies play better as a dog and they are just 6-15 ATS as a favorite of -6.5 or less in their last 21 such games. UConn has the better pedigree and the best player on the floor, but Butler has the better team, more experience and a coach that is better than anyone right now. They will not be intimidated by the moment and they have unfinished business. The public is backing Butler here and my computer matchup for this game predicts a close UConn win. I actually like Butler to wins the game outright but I'm taking them with the points for some added cushion.