Bowling Green at Toledo

Bowling Green dropped five of seven games to close the regular season, barely making it into this tournament. They were just 7-9 on the season in MAC play. Toledo hasn't been a whole lot better, but they finished the season with two straight wins including a confidence-building upset over Central Michigan on the road where they won by seven as a 7.5 point underdog. The Falcons are just 11-22 ATS the past two seasons against conference opponents and 7-26 ATS in their last 33 March games. Toledo is 8-1 ATS off a road win the past three seasons and they have covered 16 of their last 19 games coming off a road upset win. We like the Rockets here.