Boise State at Louisville

While Boise State enters this contest as one of the best shooting teams in the country, Louisville comes in as one of the best defensive teams in the nation. The Broncos put up some good offensive numbers, but have yet to face a team that is as tenacious on defense as Louisville. The Cardinals allow just 38.3% shooting, and 30.9% from three. Those numbers get even better when they got outside the BCS Conference schools, where they have allowed just 36.3%, and 30.3% from beyond the arc. Louisville has reached 80 just six times in its last 30 games, and we don't expect Boise State to try and get into a track meet with a quicker, more athletic team. The past three seasons, Louisville is 19-9 UNDER as a double-digit favorite. They are also 12-4 UNDER the past two seasons vs. good shooting teams like Boise State (those making 48%+ of their shots). We like this one to go UNDER the posted total.