Baylor at Kansas State

This is a huge Big-12 battle between Baylor and Kansas State as both are trying to improve their NCAA tournament resume, and both may be on the bubble. The winner will certainly come out of this game with the better resume. The road has not been very friendly to Baylor, as the Bears are just 3-5 away from home, while Kansas State has been almost unbeatable at home where they are a stellar 15-1 on the season. The lone loss was a shocking loss in their season opener by 2 points vs. Northern Colorado. They have since run the table in Big-12 play here. That isn't the only numbers that matter for the Wildcats, who are also 10-2 ATS in their last 12 at home. Overall, they have been up to the task of taking down good teams where they are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 vs. a team over .600. Make the play on Kansas State. In addition, Baylor has been stingy on defense, moving up to #4 in the Big 12 in points allowed. Baylor has allowed 61 and 49 points the last two games, including holding uptempo Iowa State to 61 points the last game in a 13-point win - the lowest offensive output over the year for the Cyclones. Baylor is on a 3-1-1 run UNDER the total. On offense, Baylor has some problems, at #9 in the Big 12 in shooting (.417%) and dead last at the charity stripe (66%). They take on a Kansas State team that is all about slowing the pace down and fighting defensively on every possession. The Kansas State offense is ugly at #234 in the nation in scoring while shooting .433%, on a 21-10 run UNDER the total. But this defense is fierce, third in the Big 12 in points allowed, second in field goal defense allowing .407% and #1 at defending the three-pointer (30%). The UNDER is 16-5 in the Wildcats' last 21 home games. Play the UNDER and take Kansas State.