Austin Peay at Tennessee State

Austin Peay has won five straight resulting in a near pickem line in this game. But, let's not forget how this team plays on the road. Whille 11-1 at home, they are just 7-8 on the road. Over the past three seasons, the Governors are just 2-10 ATS on the road vs. teams making 45%+ of their shots after the mid-way point of the season. This season they are 2-8 ATS overall vs. these kinds of good shooting teams. They are also 3-14 ATS the past two seasons in the underdog role. Meanwhile, Tennessee State steps it up vs. the good teams as they are a perfect 6-0 ATS vs. winning opponents this season. Both of these teams can score and this should be an exciting game. But, we like the UNDER. Tennessee State is 25-10 UNDER the past three seasons vs. winning teams. That includes a 9-1 UNDER mark at home vs. teams at 60%+ SU. In other words, vs. the best teams, they step up their defense and underperform relative to points expected. On top of that, they are 10-2 UNDER the past three seasons in high-intensity games (those with a line of -3 to +3). We like the home team and the UNDER.