Arkansas State at Troy

Arkansas State is 2-10 on the road. The defense is 12th in the 14-team Sun Belt Conference in points surrendered (78.9 per game) and in field goal shooting allowed (.454%). They're also 13th in turnover margin (-2.16). Arkansas State is 123-159 ATS after playing a game as a favorite. Meanwhile, Troy is on a six-game winning streak. They're 14-1 at home this season and have won 12 straight at Trojan Arena. They're second in the conference in scoring (80 points per game), while the defense is third in points given up (69.4 per game) and field goal shooting allowed (.419%). They're also fourth in turnover margin (+1.60). Troy is on a 15-5 SU, 15-4 ATS run, and is 12-2 ATS as a favorite, along with a 10-1 ATS run at home. Play Troy.