Arkansas State at Austin Peay

The Austin Peay Governors have so far taken the donut at 0-9. They have also allowed 80 points or more in five of their nine games played this season. How can they be favored here? The oddsmakers know that this is a very winnable game and we will likely be seeing the Governors' best effort. It may seem risky taking a team that is 0-9 to win the game outright, but they are favored here for a reason. The Governors have played a very difficult schedule with eight of the nine on the road or at a neutral site. The lone home game was vs. Middle Tennessee State who has already beaten UCLA, and is a very good team. The Red Wolves are just 1-3 on the road where they have really struggled to score. But, they are going to want to try to more up-tempo here given Peay's defensive woes. This is a great matchup for the Governors. Austin Peay is 9-1 straight-up the past three seasons when facing bad offenses (teams that shoot under 43% from the field). They are also 29-3 straight-up in their last 32 games vs. teams that score under 65 points per game. Arkansas State will score more than usual here, but I don't think it will be enough. In their last 11 games vs. the Sun Belt Conference Austin Peay has seen the OVER produce a 10-1 mark. Take Austin Peay to win and the OVER.