Arkansas-Pine Bluff at Duke

Looking back at yesterday, there was only one game that was decided by more than 18 points as Kentucky won by 29. Almost half of the games ended with the loser coming up one possession short, or by 3 points or less. I don't expect Arkansas Pine Bluff to be in a one-possession game with Duke, but I do believe that the distance between a lot of these games that appear to be mismatches on paper, are a lot closer than many would think. It has been nearly 10 years since Duke cut down the nets in this tournament, and their post-season resume since has been brutal. Duke is just 3-9 ATS in their last 12 ACC Tournament games, including 0-3 this year. They have also been a huge underachiever in the big dance, exiting much earlier than their seed would indicate, and entering here with a composite 2-10 ATS mark in their last five tourneys. That puts the post-season resume at Duke in at 5-19 ATS. This is too many points, so I'm going with Arkansas Pine Bluff.