Arizona at Virginia

Virginia has waited a long time to move out of their antiquated facilities, and tonight will christen the John Paul Jones Arena vs Arizona. It will be the first time in 20 years that Lute Olsen's team has started the season on the road. Arizona lost more games than they have in many years last year, and team chemistry, lots of distractions were the blame. The commitment is to change that this year. The problem Lute Olsen has faced annually is his teams commitment to defense. They gave up 45.3% to opponents last year, and it has been an ongoing saga at Arizona. There is always high aspirations going into March, but without a defensive commitment, they always come up short. Mustafa Shakur withdrew from the draft and will return, but is that good news or bad? Will he be a team player, or will he be concerned with positioning himself for the draft? Virginia returns all 5 starters from a NIT team that should be more competitive. Lots of changes since former Jim Calhoun assisitant, and DePaul head coach, Dave Leitao has taken the reigns at UVA. The first order of business, something he learned well under Calhoun, was to get his players to buy into a defensive commitment, something that didn't exist in Virginia for years. They were vastly improved in that area last year rising from the ACc basement, to 7th. We expect that commitment, with the same group returning to be more pronounced this year. A look at the line has the public salivating at over 70% on Arizona having to give just 3. We disagree! This will be a very high pitched fevorish crowd, getting a glimpse of the new facility, and the players will be emotionally charged, and highly motivated with a nationally ranked opponent coming in. Arizona beat Virginia by 30 last year, so this looks like an easy game, but that was in their building. Two years ago Virginia beat Arizona as a PK by 18! Take a look at the game from this perspective. Arizona is just 17-16 on the road the last 3 years, while Virginia is 34-12 at home. What would the line be with a 34-12 team vs a 17-16 team? The oddsmakers of course, can't post it that way, because as it is, Arizona is getting all the action! The point is, we are trying to show you the value here. Virginia not only destroyed Arizona here 2 years ago, but let's look at what a mediocre Virginia team did at home last year. They lost to N. Carolina in Chapel Hill by 35, and pulled the unthinkable beating them by 4 at home! They beat Wake Forest at home, they crushed BC by 14, and after getting beaten by double digits at College Park, they came home and lost by 1 to MD. It just says, yes they lost by 30 at Arizona, but watch out! There is another factor here. Virginia's Singletary is an 84.5% FT shooter, so if the game is on the line late, they have the ability to put it away, not squander it. Do we think Virginia is the better team here? No. What we do have here is a teeam that covers pointspreads. A team that is .500 on the road for 3 years, a team christening a new building, which is going to create a focus, passion, and motivation to play 40 minutes of their best basketball. A team with a commitment to defense, and a house full of frenetic fans. There is no place like a new home!