Twice as much money is spent by bettors during March Madness than in the two weeks leading up to the Super Bowl. There are many reasons for the enormous popularity of the college basketball and the NCAA tournament—stretches with fast-break action seemingly round-the-clock, a furious race to analyze matchups and odds, and plenty of last-second finishes. And of course, there are upsets. Lots of upsets.
All four No. 1 seeds got to the Final Four in 2008, but that was the only time it’s happened. No. 15 seeds reached the Sweet Sixteen with Florida Gulf Coast (2013), Oral Roberts (2021), and Princeton (2023), and Saint Peter's (2022) made a run to the Elite Eight, while Butler made back-to-back trips to the title game as a No. 5 and No. 8 seed. Princeton of the Ivy League upset Missouri (78-63) as a +6.5 underdog and Arizona (59-55) as a +15 dog.
So how does one see upsets like these coming?
March Madness: Handicapping Upsets
Predicting college basketball surprises isn’t about throwing darts at your 2025 NCAA tournament bracket. Handicapping basics are the same as every other sport—analyze matchups, check power ratings, and gauge the strengths and weaknesses of each team. In addition, understanding line movement provides experienced bettors insight into who the general betting public is on and who the wise guys are backing with their bracket predictions.
Successful handicappers bet with their heads and not their hearts when making March Madness picks, which are always capable of making a case for both teams. Upsets make national sports headlines and highlights but aren't shocking to experienced handicappers. Just look at the history of March Madness, and you can find endless surprises and upset picks in first round, second round in basically every round.
Here are some things to look for.
Under the Radar Teams
One of the most exciting parts of March Madness is small schools matched up against big-name ones. It's the classic "rooting for David against Goliath" and everyone loves an upset...except those that wagered on the favorite.
A lot of fans root for the little guy, but serious basketball handicappers look for reasons why a small school might be positioned to pull it off.
For example, March tournament play is the first time teams have played non-conference games since the season's first two months. Successful handicappers look back to see if teams from small conferences stepped up to face power conferences or top-25 opponents in November and December. If they were blown out consistently, there are reasons why, such as talent level or not matching up well in the frontcourt. Other times, they will have fared far better than expected, keeping games close as a double-digit underdog or even pulling off upsets. Dig deeper to find out why that happened. Maybe they kept excellent care of the basketball with few turnovers, slowed the pace down, exploited a weakness in their foe, or shot well from 3-point land and at the charity stripe.
This type of game investigation will help you see which under the radar teams might pull off an upset with a buzzer beater in March Madness.
Tough Defense
Defense begins with the head coach. A coach has to teach defensive techniques in practice and then demand it during games. Signs that players buy into a coach's defensive philosophy are playing a physical game in the low post, hustling back on defense, and getting a hand in the face of players taking three-pointers even when they have no chance of blocking the shot.
It also shows up in conference stats: field goal shooting allowed, steals, points allowed, and 3-point defense. In 2021, UCLA was a fine defensive team under coach Mick Cronin. As a No. 11 seed, UCLA won five in a row—four as an underdog. The Bruins were the fifth First Four team to advance to the Sweet 16 with a win over No. 2 seed Alabama as a +7 dog and a 51-49 upset of No. 1 seed Michigan at +6.5.
Defensive stats can be more important than offensive ones when making a case for an underdog to keep it close enough to pull an upset.
How Did Teams Fare When Stepping Up?
A good gauge to see if teams are ready for the heat of March Madness is to see how they played against difficult opponents during conference play in the regular season. A team may go on a 10-3 run in January and February, but a more telling sign is if they went 10-0 versus cupcakes while three losses were blowouts to top-25 opponents. It indicates they have weaknesses in key areas that get exploited by better teams, or they will wilt when the big-game spotlight is on them.
It's also an excellent handicapping tool when small schools are matched against teams from high-profile conferences in March. In December of 2017, Loyola-Chicago was a +16 underdog at No. 5 Florida and gave the Gators a scare in a 65-59 final, allowing 36.9% shooting. A few months later, Loyola-Chicago won the Missouri Valley tournament. Then, as the No. 11 seed in the South Region, they upset No. 6-seed Miami as a +3 underdog, defeated No. 3-seed Tennessee as a +6 dog, defeated Nevada in the Sweet Sixteen and Kansas State in the Elite Eight as underdogs to make it to the Final Four.
A team that played well in November and December when stepping up in competition could be primed to pull off a few March upsets. If you follow this tip (or use my picks), those upsets may be a shock to the average college men's basketball fan, but not to you because you knew what to look for.
Venue
Neutral court sites are the norm during March Madness. While home court isn't common, teams can have near-home court advantages that must be assessed against the odds.
Some teams travel short distances, which can mean plenty of support from the crowd. In 2008, No. 10 seed Davidson played the first two games in their home state of North Carolina, upset Gonzaga and No. 2 seed Georgetown.
Other times, teams are playing in a visiting arena that they’re used to, such as the home court of a conference rival. LSU was the first No. 11 seed to make the Final Four in 1986. The Tigers had home court for the first and second-round games and are the only team to eliminate the No. 1, 2, and 3 seeds in their region on their run.
Examining how a team performed at neutral sites during the season can also enlighten handicappers. If they execute well consistently, particularly on defense, it can shine a light on potential March live underdogs capable of pulling a tournament upset—no matter where they're playing..
Style of Play
College basketball teams play different styles. Offensively, you’ll find some teams prefer run-and-gun and others who prefer a slow pace predicated on ball movement. In the defensive end, you’ll find man-to-man, zone, or some that prefer a full-court press. And you’ll find some teams live by the three-pointer. The stat sheet may say that a team shoots 41% from the field—worst in the conference—but they're the best 3-point shooting at 37%. They put a premium on the long ball rather than two-point shots.
One March Madness strategy is knowing each team’s style of play can help you spot who is primed for an upset.
For example, a team that prefers to run is likely to match up well against a weak defensive one, but if they confront a suffocating defensive opponent in the next game, the offense probably won't be as fluid or high-scoring.
If they're in the role of favorite, the defensive dog may match up better. March Madness is ripe with upsets where the underdog can control the kind of pace the opponent doesn't want to play. That can throw the favorite off their game. In 2006, coach Jim Larranaga had No. 11 seed George Mason playing defensive-oriented pace and had a memorable March run. They upset Michigan State (75-65), No. 3 seed North Carolina (65–60), Wichita State (63–55), and No. 1 seed UConn. They held the defending champion Tar Heels to 35.9% shooting and Wichita State to 31.3%.
Future NBA Talent
You can find plenty of NBA talent that played college ball at small conferences and lesser-known schools. The NBA Hall of Fame contains such luminaries as Scottie Pippen (Central Arkansas), George Gervin (Eastern Michigan), Dennis Rodman (Southeastern Oklahoma State), and Larry Bird (Indiana State). Small schools are often underdogs during tournament action because of the name factor. It's common to hear casual bettors muttering, "Wisconsin is facing Davidson? Who's Davidson? Give me the favored Big Ten team."
In 2008, No. 10 seed Davidson had a sophomore guard named Stephen Curry. He averaged 32 points in the tournament as Davidson surprised Gonzaga, Georgetown, and Wisconsin to advance to the Elite Eight. Against Wisconsin, Davidson was a 5-point underdog but won going away, 73-56. Curry had 33 points on 11-of-22 shooting.
Casual bettors might not have seen the upsets looming, but savvy handicappers did: Curry and Davidson had faced three top-10 teams in non-conference action, losing close ones to No. 7 Duke (79-73), No. 7 UCLA (75-63), and No. 1 North Carolina (72-68).
Coaching in the NCAA Tournament
Another way to predict potential March Madness bracket upsets is with someone who won't score a single point in the game: the head coach. Competent coaches can get the most out of a team. That includes preparation and organization, motivation, and in-game adjustments, all key ingredients when you're handicapping teams in the role of underdog.
Shaka Smart helped No. 11 seed VCU make a memorable 2011 tournament run to the Final Four. They upset No. 6 Georgetown as a +5 underdog, 74-56, then took down No. 3 seed Purdue two days later, 94-76, as a 9.5-point dog. That was just the appetizer as VCU took down No. 1 Kansas, 71-61, as a double-digit dog the following week. Said one Ram player, "We got prepared well by Coach. He prepared us really well, and we just went out there and executed what he told us to do."
Examine regular-season records both straight-up and against the spread. Teams that cover more than they don't are signs they're overachieving and undervalued by oddsmakers.
Anticipating March Madness Upsets
March Madness history is littered with surprises and shocking upsets. The key to anticipating upsets and being on the winning side with your March Madness predictions is to understand the handicapping basics—stats, matchups, line movement—and have a general understanding of the strengths and weaknesses of each team when examining matchups. Make your own sports betting numbers based on your evaluation, compare them to actual odds, and observe how they move.
Small colleges stepping up to face the big-name programs will influence the line, but that doesn't mean the underdog has little chance of pulling the upset. Check how small programs fared when stepping up in competition, whether they play strong team defense, their style of play, and if they have an above-average coach with a successful track record. Today's talented, small-school coaches will likely be running powerhouse programs tomorrow. March Madness upsets happen all the time during March Madness, which is one of the main reasons it's such an exciting—and profitable—time on the sports wagering calendar.
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