“Expect the unexpected,” that’s how I’d summarize March Madness to someone if they’d never heard of the college basketball frenzy before. Teams that are two-point favorites end up winning by 20 and double-digit favorites can end up losing by...double-digits. This goes on for four weeks with a tsunami of action up and down the court and at the wagering windows.
The college basketball moniker "March Madness" was coined in 1939 for the first Division I tournament that had (wait for it)....just eight teams!
The craze was rooted in the 1979 NCAA Championship final between Magic Johnson's Michigan State squad and Larry Bird's 33-0 Indiana State team. That's still the most-watched college basketball game ever. The tournament was 32 teams then and expanded to 64 teams in 1985. The interest naturally spilled over to betting circles and continues to grow.
About twice as much money is bet on the NCAA men's basketball tournament than in the two weeks leading up to the Super Bowl. With college basketball money pouring into March sportsbooks, oddsmakers must find creative ways to satisfy obsessed fans that are looking to bet on March Madness.
Brackets Busted
Millions of people pencil in their NCAA tournament bracket each March, and most are blown up in the first round. It's free and fun, but the odds of anyone hitting a perfect bracket are 1 in 9.2 quintillion. That's a mathematical way of saying "Fugget-about-it," as no perfect bracket has ever been verified.
"Okay, okay, but I'm not just anyone. I follow college basketball and know far more than the average person." In that case, your odds of picking a perfect NCAA tournament bracket improve to 1 in 128 billion. That's a diplomatic way of saying, "Fugget-about-it." To have a 50-50 chance of ever seeing that in one lifetime, you'd have to sit through one billion NCAA tournaments when it's exhausting enough just watching one.
Championship Stats
Two handicapping stats that help better predict teams that are more likely to advance are offensive and defensive efficiency, which measures how many points a team scores per 100 possessions. Over an 18-year stretch, only one college basketball champion has ranked outside the Top 20 in offensive efficiency—UConn in 2014. The Huskies were more clutch than dominant, winning three of six games by 5, 6, and 6 points, along with an opening-round overtime win over No. 10 seed Saint Joseph's, 89-81. UConn was 66-to-1 to win that year's tournament. In addition, none of the 18 champs ranked outside the Top 20 in defensive efficiency.
Each season, there will be relatively high seeds that aren't ranked well in offensive or defensive efficiency, meaning they have flaws at one end of the court. Flaws get exposed during intense March play, with good teams playing all out with so much at stake. This helps explain why so many upsets are prevalent and what prevents flawed No. 1 seeds from making the title game.
No. 1 with Benefits
Being No. 1 does have some advantages. In 34 national championship games after 1985, No. 1 seeds won 32 times (47%), so it's good to be king.
Teams that were national champs and a No. 1 seed have also been some of the best in history at covering point spreads. Duke was a top seed in 2010 and 2015, covering point spreads at 62.2% and 63.2% during their tournament runs.
In 2011, No. 1 Connecticut covered at a 65.7% clip while winning the title, and in 2018, eventual champion Villanova was a top seed that covered 68% of its March Madness run.
No. 1 seed Virginia was the national champion in 2019 while covering at a 68.4% clip, while in 2021, top-seeded Baylor cut down the nets after covering 66.7% of the time. Baylor went 6-0 ATS in the final six games, culminating in an 86-70 win over Gonzaga as a +4 underdog.
Of course, it's more than just being a top seed, as three other No. 1 seeds didn't win it all. It's a combination of talent, offensive and defensive efficiency, plus chemistry, clicking at the right time near the end of a long season.
March Madness Legal Eagles
Sports betting became legal in the United States in 1931, but only in Nevada Gambling was legalized to help generate revenue and jobs to deal with the Great Depression, which began in late 1929. The first college basketball tournament champion was a team you’ve probably never heard of—the Oregon Webfoots. Now that is some NCAA tournament history.
In 1950, the champs were another team you probably haven't heard of: City College of New York Beavers. Eight schools played 10 games in single-elimination play as City College topped Bradley for the national title, 71-68. Unfortunately, they're remembered more for a point-shaving scandal. Dozens of gamblers were prosecuted for match-fixing, along with 35 players nationwide, one ref, and members of organized crime.
Another point-shaving scandal unfolded in 1994 when the Sun Devils went from a 12- to a 3-point favorite in one day. An Arizona State student drove to a Nevada sports book and wanted to place a wager against the Sun Devils not caring what the line was! It set off red flags, prompting a sportsbook director to notify the Nevada Gaming Control Board that something was amiss, and the ploy soon unraveled. Arizona State ended up beating Washington by 18 points, easily covering the -3, -12, and everything in between, with the fixers losing every crooked bet.
ATS Cover Rates
College basketball handicappers dig deep to assess the difference between a team being overvalued and one showing signs of marked improvement. When teams get hot, winning and covering a lot of games, oddsmakers are forced to give them a bit more respect when making lines. However, a strong sign that a team is prepared to do well in March can be found in whether they've been covering the spread or not.
When Kansas won it all in 2022, the Jayhawks ended the season on a 17-3 SU, 12-8 ATS run. That included a blistering 81-65 blowout of No. 2 seed Villanova in the Final Four. The team they beat in the title game, North Carolina, went 14-4-1 ATS down the stretch, winning five of six straight-up as an underdog. In 2016, No. 2 seed Villanova ended up winning it all, covering 55.3% of the time, while in 2014, No. 7 seed Connecticut covered at a 60.5% clip. That 2014 Huskies squad was 95-to-1 to win it all entering the tournament, the highest odds of any champion. Speaking of UConn, when they won back-to-back titles from 2023-2024, the Huskies ended those seasons on runs of 16-3 SU, 15-4 ATS run, and 27-1 SU, 21-7 ATS.
Spread cover rates are a strong indicator during NCAA March Madness that a team has taken it up a notch and is playing its best basketball at the right time.
Defense as a Difference-Maker
Defensive stats are a great place to start when trying to predict March Madness upsets and spread covers. Butler of the Horizon League shocked everyone with back-to-back trips to the championship game. The Bulldogs were 80-to-1 to win the 2010 tournament. They were also defensive dynamos, eighth in the nation in points given up (59.4 per game) in 2010, along with 41.6% shooting allowed. The 2011 team wasn't explosive offensively (73 ppg), just efficient, while the defense allowed 42.6% field goal shooting. Those are the types of teams that can raise hell with brackets. It also explains low-scoring games, a boon for total players. 2022 champion Kansas ended its season on a 13-8 run UNDER the total. 2023 champ UConn ended on a 10-6 run UNDER, then repeated in 2024 with a 14-4 UNDER the total run to end the season, including the last seven March Madness tilts.
March Madness Betting Trends
Today, March Madness betting trends and data are more prevalent than ever on betting sites, but proceed cautiously. One of the more popular trends involves small schools getting massive amounts of points from the book. It's an easy sell with casual bettors because who doesn't love an underdog? However, these general trends alone are not enough reasons for dogs to cover regularly. Over one extended stretch (1985-24), March Madness double-digit underdogs went 242-232 ATS (51.1%). It's far more critical to find reasons within the stats, matchups, and head coaching track records that support a double-digit dog to play well and pull off a historic upset.
Championship stats that are the real difference-makers in predicting March Madness success at the betting window are offensive and defensive efficiency. And for every bit of online data supporting No. 1 seeds—or predicting the next big bracket buster—you can bet that the top oddsmakers are aware of it and baking it into the line.
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