From the Sweet 16 to the Elite Eight, the March Madness journey whittles down the Final Four on the way to crowning a champion in the National Championship game. Only eight teams competed during the first 12 years of the NCAA tournament (1939-50), so the Elite Eight was the first round! And it's not just for the elite college basketball schools or conferences, which is a massive part of the appeal. In 2022, No. 15 seed Saint Peter's became the lowest-seeded team to reach the Elite Eight, and No. 12 seed Oregon State made it in 2021. In addition, a pair of No. 11 seeds, Virginia Commonwealth (2011) and UCLA (2021), became the first "First Four" teams to win an Elite Eight matchup and advance to the Final Four. In 2006, No. 11 seed George Mason became the first 11 seed to advance to the Final Four in 20 years after shocking No. 1 seed Connecticut in overtime as an 8-point underdog.
Elite Eight Upsets
Being a higher-seeded team has not been much of an advantage in the Elite Eight. Since 2000, the better-seeded squads went 50-46 SU and 36-56-4 ATS. That's barely 50% just winning the game, while the underdog had a significant edge in covering the point spread. There are always surprise teams, like San Diego State and Florida Atlantic in 2023, making the Final Four. No. 9 seed FAU beat No. 4 Tennessee 62-55, along with an Elite Eight win over No. 3 Kansas State, 79-76. Other times, teams get hot at the right time, such as No. 11 seed NC State in 2024, knocking off No. 6 Texas Tech and upsetting No. 4 Duke (76-64) in the Elite Eight. When lower-seeded teams get hot, they're the talk of the college basketball world and the average bettor trends toward them. They get caught up in the excitement, which shows at the betting window. A Las Vegas sportsbook official pointed out that 73% of the money was on NC State to beat or cover against Duke. The "game within the game" is that fans root for the underdog while the House cheers on the favorite.
Elite Eight No. 1 Seeds
It's one thing to see a higher-seeded team against a lower-seeded team in the Elite Eight, but what about being No. 1? In 2024, No. 1 seeds UConn and Purdue made the Elite Eight and rolled. UConn crushed No. 3 Illinois, 77-52, while Purdue devoured NC State's Cinderella story with a 63-50 beatdown. However, a 25-year sample of No. 1 seeds in the Elite Eight finds that the top seed is just 34-25 straight up and 25-30-4 against the spread. They win more but cover less. The Elite Eight is still a survival round, even for No. 1. In addition, Elite Eight favorites of 4 points or fewer have gone on a 4-10 SU and 3-10-1 ATS run, as well as 17-33-1 ATS since 1998.
Coaching in the Elite Eight
Another reason that March Madness bracket upsets happen during March Madness is coaching. Lower-seeded teams and ones from lesser-known conferences can have outstanding head coaches. They've spent all season learning what their team can and can't do. They streamlined the rotation, knowing when starters needed a breather and what to ask of the reserves. Some teams have one good sixth man who can do many things well, while others have three or four decent role players who can provide a spark or bring in aggressive defense when needed. Good coaches also use their timeouts wisely, identify the best matchups, and drill their team to execute in the final minute of a close game. Average or below-average coaches lack these essential qualities, which can be a liability in close games. Michigan State's Tom Izzo has a stellar record in March, while Jim Larrañaga was the first coach to take two double-digit seeds to the Elite Eight at different schools (No. 11 seed George Mason in 2006 and No. 10 seed Miami in 2022). Handicapping players and college basketball matchups before the contest is essential to identify who has the betting line edges — but don't ignore the coach's competency and history when it comes to March Madness betting.
College Basketball: Conferences Matter
Different conferences often meet in the Elite Eight, and much like regular season non-conference action, this is a good time to gauge the power rankings of the top conferences. Some conferences do exceptionally well, both straight-up and against the odds. In 2024, the SEC and the Big 12 got the most tournament bids, with eight apiece. Impressive...until the games started, as they combined to go 14-14 heading into the Elite Eight. Instead, the ACC (11-2) and the Big East (7-2) won most of the time. From 2023 to 2024, the ACC went 32-12 SU and 32-11-1 ATS in the NCAA tournament, and the Big East won the championship in each of those years (UConn). Even lower-seeded ACC teams have been impressive: from 2012 to 2024, ACC teams playing as double-digit seeds went 18-9-2 ATS during March. In addition, over five straight tournaments, the SEC has been overvalued, going 43-43 SU and 32-54 ATS. That culminated in the 2024 Elite Eight when No. 4 seed Alabama and No. 2 seed Tennessee both lost and failed to cover against Purdue and UConn.
Elite Eight Totals
The defense often shines in pro and college basketball postseasons with so much at stake. However, the Elite Eight is one place that features more high-scoring games than strangling defensive duels. Teams with multiple scoring options sprinkled around star offensive players are better suited to advance. By this stage, teams have offensive schemes that lead to quality shot selection and higher shooting percentages. The Elite Eight sees an increase in pace and scoring, something Over/Under bettors need to remember. Since 2001, the Elite Eight round has gone 88-66-2 OVER the total. The highest total in 2024 was Clemson/Alabama at 164, and it sailed OVER in an 89-82 final. The previous year, Kansas State/Florida Atlantic went OVER 144 points in a 79-76 game, while Miami/Texas flew OVER 147 in an 88-81 shootout. In Elite Eight games featuring totals of 143 or less, the OVER has gone 59-30 (66.3%).
Elite Eight Correlated Parlays
Correlated parlays are two wagering outcomes related to each other that are likely to occur in one game. For instance, the Elite Eight has seen an advantage for underdogs and high-scoring games, with a disadvantage for No. 1 seeds. A correlated parlay would be finding an underdog that matches up well in what should be a high-scoring affair. Hence, parlay the underdog with the OVER. In the above examples, Clemson/Alabama went OVER the total, but the favorite (Alabama) covered it, so the correlated underdog/OVER parlay would lose. Miami/Texas and Kansas State/Florida Atlantic sailed OVER with the underdogs winning the game straight-up, so those would be correlated parlay winners. Parlays pay more than straight bets, providing a higher return. One could even increase the parlay odds by backing the underdog on the moneyline to win the game + the OVER.
Eight is Enough
March Madness is known for its upsets, and the Elite 8 fits right in with underdogs barking loudly, straight up and against the spread. One approach I used to identify potential upsets is by studying the coaching history, the conferences, and how often No. 1 seeds drop in the Elite Eight. Sports betting on totals has also proven valuable in my experience, and the Elite Eight has a propensity for high-scoring tilts.
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