If there's one word that sums up March Madness, it would be "unpredictable." That's what makes it such a popular draw for fans and bettors.
Sometimes top-level Power Five schools showcase their elite talent and overwhelm smaller schools—but not always. With so many games, upsets happen. No. 10 seeds unexpectedly advance and double-digit underdogs keep it close until the final, thrilling seconds. The survivors then pick themselves up and go through it all again two days later. It’s a made-for-theatre marathon packed into a few weeks.
While expecting the unexpected, there are steps sports bettors can take to prepare themselves to gain an edge over the oddsmakers when they bet on March Madness.
Do High Seeds Hold Most of the Edges?
The biggest sports betting mistake in the 2025 NCAA tournament is assuming the higher seeds are always the far better teams when filling out your NCAA bracket.
Some high seeds have fantastic records but played a soft schedule. Some low seeds have records closer to .500 after a rough start but have caught fire in the last few months. Some little-known schools will be big underdogs against a No. 2 or No. 3 seed but can control the pace and keep games low-scoring. A 52-50 score with five minutes left means a 12-point underdog is not only in good shape to cover, but has a shot to pull off a big upset. That's one of the great appeals of March Madness betting.
In 2023, No. 16 Fairleigh Dickinson was a 23.5-point underdog but knocked off No. 1 Purdue in the first round, 63-58. The strategy was to harass star center Zach Edey every time he touched the basketball and force other Boilermakers to beat them. Edey was 7-for-11 shooting, while everyone else was 12-for-42.
As a pro handicapper, I’m more interested in matchups, defense, or styles of play than seeding numbers.
Pro tip: Don’t assume the higher seeds are always the better team.
Defense Wears the Crown
Every college basketball national champion since 2001 has ranked in the top 44 of adjusted defensive efficiency. Offense comes and goes, with players and teams having hot and cold shooting spells. That's a contributing factor to all the March Madness upsets. A high-ranked seed with great offensive talent can still have a 10-minute stretch of turnovers and erratic shooting, dooming even the biggest of favorites.
Defense is different.
Defense is about effort and intensity, putting a hand in a shooter's face, physicality in the low post, or hustling back to prevent a fast break. Defensive deficiencies will get exploited by opponents at tournament time. Teams with powerful defensive stats are often the best prepared for the March grind—straight up and against the spread.
Pro tip: Investigate the defense.
Be Wary of the Betting Public
English poet Thomas Tusser quipped, "A fool and his money are soon parted." The betting public can quickly move March Madness lines by pounding a favored team, such as turning a 9-point favorite to 12-point chalk. Just keep in mind that the average bettor loses. They think that any ACC team will wipe out a school from the Atlantic Ten, the Southern Conference, or the Horizon League. But handicapping is more complex, encompassing stats, matchup analysis, and situational factors.
Davidson shocked the college basketball world by upsetting No. 7 Gonzaga, No. 2 Georgetown, and No. 3 Wisconsin before falling to No. 1 Kansas, 59-57, as a +9 underdog. Future NBA star Steph Curry scored 128 points in those four games for Davidson. The betting public loved underdog NC State against Purdue in the 2024 Final Four. As a 9.5-point favorite, the Boilermakers helped the books by crushing the public money in a 63-50 victory.
Pro tip: Be wary of blindly following the betting public.
Geography
March basketball tournament action is scattered around the country at different venues. Some teams have to travel long distances, while some have short trips in their home state. Teams taking long trips have to deal with all the regular-season challenges of playing road games, such as plane rides, changing time zones, and playing and practicing in unfamiliar arenas. Some teams have familiarity if it's the home court of a conference opponent that they play once or twice a season.
Geography influences the fan base, as well. A team with a strong fan base playing close to home can bring a large, enthusiastic entourage that will be rooting for them.
It may be a slight advantage compared to a regular home game, but even little edges with your March Madness picks can make a big difference in the final score and against the spread.
Pro tip: Sometimes small edges can be found in geography.
Road Spread Covers
One handicapping tip that gets beneath the surface of how good or overrated a team might be is how they perform on the road. Any team can play well in front of the home fans. Most of the big upsets in college basketball find the underdog pulling the surprise at home.
Examine how a team performs on the road during the regular season. Are they competitive, even if they have a losing record? Do they cover the spread more often than not? Then, try to find the reasons why. They may have an elite coach, play great team defense, or have balanced scoring so they don't rely on one player to carry the load.
Pro tip: When assessing whether underdogs can pull off a March Madness surprise, road play can shed light on whether a team is undervalued against the spread.
Flexible Thinking
As in life, adaptability is essential to sports handicapping. Bettors often examine simple college basketball angles when handicapping, such as a correlation between defensive stats and games going UNDER the total. However, the most successful bettors are those who understand the multiple layers that are attached to betting angles.
Bettors often lean on a handful of angles that make sense and work well for them, such as situational handicapping or matchups. Others find they have a knack for wagers that aren't as popular as sides and totals, such as moneylines, props, parlays, or futures. It's a good idea to try different wagering strategies and even add things to them, creating your own unique angle.
The oddsmakers aren't dummies. They do their homework and aren’t in business to give money away. Winning handicappers must also use flexible, outside-the-box thinking to develop tournament angles that maximize their cognitive strengths.
Pro tip: Stay flexible when experimenting with trends and angles.
Stepping Up in Competition
One of the unique things about college basketball is the enormous range in the level of competition. With so many conferences and teams, March Madness finds teams from top-level programs with future NBA talent facing far smaller programs that rarely have future pro players. The elite conferences are often the favorite, many times by double-digits. Essentially, oddsmakers have to make bigger-name schools the favorite as they factor in what the average Joe bettor is thinking about a March Madness game.
The public sees 15-point Arizona over Princeton or 12-point chalk Duke over Lehigh and thinks, "Of course Duke and Arizona are going to roll." But should they be favored? Or does a careful analysis of the matchup reveal a closer game? This is where it's handy to combine stats, such as 3-point shooting or team defense, with regular-season games where smaller schools stepped up in competition.
For instance, during the 2011-2012 regular season, Lehigh was a 12.5-point underdog to St. John's and covered in a 78-73 loss. They then played close games against Iowa State (86-77) of the Big 12 and No. 19 Michigan State (90-81) of the Big 10. That continued during March Madness as Lehigh knocked off Duke, 75-70, as a +12 dog. Lehigh wasn't scared when stepping up in March competition—which had been evident all season long.
Pro tip: Smart bettors consider the season, not just the odds.
Styles of Play
A common NCAA tournament betting mistake is assuming that regular-season statistics will apply to offenses. High-flying offenses that average 85 points per game might come down several notches since defense gets turned up in March with so much on the line. In 2022-23, Arizona led the Pac-12, averaging 82.7 points while shooting 49.6% from the field. That meant nothing though in the tournament's first round as Princeton upset No. 2 seed Arizona, 59-55, as a +15 underdog controlling the pace with a brilliant defensive effort and game plan.
Coaches in the underdog role will try to devise ways to throw the opponent off its usual game. That's one of many reasons higher March tournament seeds don't hold all the edges.
Pro tip: Don’t underestimate how style of play may shift in the NCAA tournament, whether it’s a prepared coach shaking up strategy, or defense turning up the heat, the season status quo doesn't always win out.
Game Planning for the Madness
Utilize tricks and tips, such as road point spread covers, tournament geography, defensive stats, and how teams played when stepping up in competition. Using these tricks and tips will help you win more during the first-round, second round, sweet 16 and all the way through the National Championship game. Approach March Madness with flexible, out-of-the-box thinking and be wary of the betting public. While most bettors are very good at finding losers, you can use these strategies to beat the betting market and win more bets.
Successful sports handicapping is about careful thought and study to unearth winners, and the point spread is the great equalizer. Want to win more without all the work? Get my free picks.
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