March Madness Betting Trends

Sports betting trends come in all shapes and sizes, and are one tool in the toolbelt when making college basketball picks. While many are engaging or come with a high win percentage, the best betting trends are ones that have reasons behind them when you head to the sportsbook window. 

For example, over a 10-year stretch in the NCAAB tournament, first-round favorites of 13.5 points or more went 82-8 straight up but 39-51 against the spread. A trend like this can provide insight for sports bettors and sports handicappers, implying that big favorites can be overvalued. It makes sense because every team that makes it to the Big Dance is motivated to play with great intensity, even if they're overmatched against a powerful opponent. Underdogs can perform much better than expected, even pulling colossal upsets. And at the same time, it doesn't mean that most underdogs will play well and cover, as some are overmatched in talent level and get routed. 

Is It Profitable to Be No. 1? 

No. 1 seeds will be huge favorites in the first round of tournament action. A betting trend for first-round No. 1 seeds is that favorites of 19 to 25 points have gone 13-24 ATS since 2009. No. 1 seeds favored by 12 or more points have won 27 of 28 games but are 17-15 ATS. Is it better to be No. 2? No. 2 seeds in the first round are 13-23 ATS when favored by 17 points or more. 

Talent Magnets: ACC or Big East? 

Like the SEC in football, the Atlantic Coast Conference in college basketball is a draw for future pro talent. That can show up in non-conference games during the Big Dance. The ACC has been on a 33-12 ATS March Madness tournament run. And UConn turned the Big East into the Big Daddy of the Big Dance while winning back-to-back titles. From 2016-24, the Big East went 24-10 ATS during March Madness. 

Over/Under March Madness Trends 

Point spread sides aren't the only way to wager. Savvy sports handicappers examine totals just as carefully as many times they offer greater betting value. No. 1 seeds in the first round have recently stepped it up on defense, going 14-6 UNDER. There are reasons attached to this, as top seeds are often great defensively, which will show up in overall rankings and conference stats. Those trends can be evident during the regular season, as well. 

A pair of No. 2 seeds that went UNDER the total in their first-round matches were Marquette shutting down Western Kentucky, and Arizona topping Long Beach State 85-65 in a game that stayed UNDER by double-digits. That was part of Arizona's 14-8 UNDER run to end the season, while Marquette was 22-13 UNDER. 

Big Upset, Big Fall

Teams that pull off upsets as double-digit underdogs don't usually carry it over to the next round. They're 4-18 straight-up and 7-15 against the spread in the NCAA Tournament. 

In 2022, No. 15 seed Saint Peters stunned No. 2 Kentucky, 67-64, as a +13 dog. Two days later, they took the court against North Carolina. As a +8.5 underdog, Saint Peters got routed 69-49. 

In 2016, No. 2 seed Michigan State was a 17-point favorite over No. 15 Middle Tennessee but lost 90-81. In the next game, Middle Tennessee got run out of the building by No. 10 seed Syracuse, 75-50. 

In 2022 and 2023, No. 15 seeds Saint Peters and Princeton upset No. 2 seeds Kentucky and Arizona but lost in the next round. 

In 2023, Fairleigh Dickinson became only the second No. 16 seed to knock off a No. 1 seed by taking down Purdue, 63-58, as a +23 underdog. They had a favorable matchup in the next round against No. 9 seed Florida Atlantic but lost 78-70. 

Second-Round Line Moves 

Another handicapping angle is following the money. You can tell when a handful of big-money players are on a game. The March Madness odds will adjust quickly or move a few points even if a small number of bettors are on that side. Line moves with a small number of bettors tell you that a few players are wagering a lot of money. But the average bettor makes many of the March Madness line moves on big-name favorites, and it's probably a loser when the public gets behind any second-round chalk. During a seven-year run (2017-23), Round 2 line moves went 21-37 ATS. In addition, over the last 20 years, when 75% of the bets or more favored one team in the NCAA Tournament, those sides went 28-41 ATS. 

Second Round Top 4 Seed Betting Trends 

The second-round top-4 seeds that won their first-round game but failed to cover are on a 45-17 SU, 35-27 ATS run since 2013. They're also 35-27 UNDER the total. In 2024, Arizona failed to cover against Long Beach State in the first round. In Round 2, the Wildcats were an 8.5-point favorite versus Dayton and opened up a 17-point lead on the way to a 78-68 win and cover. Arizona allowed 40.7% shooting as the game sailed UNDER. In addition, since 2001, second-round double-digit favorites are 49-2 SU and 31-20 ATS. Second-round No. 2 seeds favored by five points or fewer are 10-20-2 ATS. 

Dominant Defensive Tournament Trend

A trend utilized for decades by Las Vegas sharps applies to the third round of the NCAA tournament: backing the third-round team that allowed the fewest total points in the first two rounds. Defense is such a significant advantage during tournament play. The angle backs the suffocating defensive squad that advanced while allowing the fewest total points in its first two contests. 

In 2023, fifth-seeded San Diego State fit that angle, allowing 57 and 52 points in its first two games. The Aztecs were a +6 underdog in Round 3 but knocked off No. 1 Alabama, 71-64. Alabama led the SEC in scoring (81.8 ppg) but was held to 32.4% shooting. 

Sweet 16 Round 

The round of 16 isn't that sweet for No. 1 seeds. Only four March Madness tournaments saw three top seeds advance to the Final Four. No. 1 seeds have a bullseye on their backs and with the competition getting tougher, it's not surprising to see Sweet 16 upsets. Sweet 16 favorites of 5 or more points haven't fared that well lately, either, on a 7-17 ATS run after Clemson beat Arizona (77-72) and North Carolina State upended Marquette (67-58), both as +7 underdogs. And totals players take note: Sweet 16 favorites of 8 points or more are on a 27-8 run UNDER the total. In addition, over two decades, the UNDER has gone 16-6 in Sweet 16 matchups featuring a total of 128 or less.

Elite Eight Wagering Trends 

Underdogs have been on an impressive run in the Elite Eight, recently going a stellar 20-11 ATS. That continues a long-term trend back to 2000, with the higher-seeded teams going 36-56 ATS. In addition, Elite Eight favorites of 4 points or less are 18-34 ATS since 1998. The nightmare matchup for Elite Eight No. 1-to-No. 3 seeds has been facing a No. 4 seed. The higher-seeded favorite of four or fewer points has gone 8-21 ATS. It's also been a higher-scoring round, with the OVER on an 88-66 run since 2001. 

Championship Round

Tournament championship game favorites of 3 points or higher have gone 15-3 straight-up and 13-5 ATS after UConn destroyed San Diego State (76-59) and Purdue (75-60) to win back-to-back titles. 

Trending Up 

Handicapping non-conference action is a challenge late in the college basketball season. When assessing March Madness betting trends, try to identify why a trend is relevant when attempting to predict whether a team is overvalued or undervalued. Upsets often happen, which creates enormous interest, and it's not always a plus to be seeded No. 1. Anybody can pull a stunning upset, but keep in mind the ACC and the Big East have thrived in recent years with a talent-level edge. And don't just zero in on sides. Winning CBB totals pay the same as winning sides and can offer better value, especially with defense, which is a great asset as the deeper teams advance in March. 

Most of all, remember trends are just one factor when gamble on the tournament. Avoid betting trends blindly and look for the reasoning behind the trend to make sure it’s sound. Don’t want to do the work of evaluating trends? Let me do it for you–get my free picks.