Highest Seed to Win March Madness

It's March, the time of year when the college basketball world goes mad. Tournament action is intense for fans, players, and bettors. With games tipping off at all hours, we often need multiple TVs and a few handheld devices to keep up with all the action. 

For handicappers, it’s a challenging few weeks. There’s a lot to analyze with so many different conferences, styles of play, and big-name programs facing smaller schools. The excitement starts on college basketball's selection Sunday, with some schools celebrating high-seedings and others dropping lower than expected. It begs the question: Does seeding even matter when it comes to your March Madness strategy? 

Bracket Seedings 

The NCAA tournament uses a bracket system with teams seeded based on their regular season, strength of schedule, and how they come out of conference tournament play. Getting one of the four No. 1 seeds or four No. 2 seeds is coveted and these top teams are consistently upper echelon. After that, it's a mixed bag as far as reaction. Plenty of teams will be delighted to get a No. 5 seed, while other schools face disappointment drawing a No. 5 or 6 seed when they felt they should have been in the top four. Regardless of where a team ends up in the bracket, the games still have to be played, and advancement to the, Sweet 16 and Final Four has to be earned. 

Matchups

The top seeds will draw favorable matchups in the first two rounds vs the lowest seed. They will likely have better records than their opponent and definitely have higher power ratings. They'll usually end up the betting favorite, often by double-digits. But what makes March Madness so intoxicating is that higher-seeded teams and double-digit favorites can find themselves in games that come down to the final possession. That's because all kinds of unexpected factors will surface. 

A No. 1 seed may be out of sync or have an off-night shooting or simply take their opponent too lightly. A lower-seeded underdog may control the pace with a choking, defensive style that keeps it close. A No. 2 seed with a big frontcourt that shoots at a high percentage can be matched up against a small school with quick guards that frustrate the big men into turnovers. Being a No. 1 seed means nothing if the game is tied with a minute to go. All it takes is one clumsy possession, a turnover, or a missed free throw, and the lower-seeded team can pull off an March Madness upset. 

We're No. 1! 

In 1985, the NCAA tournament expanded to include 64 teams. In the 39 national championship games that followed, 29 No. 1 seeds made the title game, with 24 top seeds winning the national championship. That's the most titles by any seed, so being No. 1 has its perks, and prediction power. On the other hand, each tournament features four No. 1 seeds—meaning three, on average, have been knocked out at some point. For those trying to predict brackets, 75% of top seeds end up crying, "Wait till next year..." 

Identifying Overvalued Top Seeds

Handicapping team strengths and weaknesses helps narrow down which No. 1 is primed for a long March run and which three may fall earlier than expected. 

When I’m doing this, one of the things I’m looking at are the head coaches. How many tournament games do they have under their belt? Do they have a history of great regular seasons and then flop at some point during March Madness? Plenty of head coaches are great at recruiting top talent but a little short in the Xs and Os department, which gets exposed during tournament action. 

No. 1 seeds can have flaws, too, poor free-throw shooting or marginal team defense to name a few. These can be masked much of the season when they win 87-77 as a 13-point favorite despite missing 10 freebies and allowing a high shooting percentage. But those weak spots can lead to March upsets when opponents are better, and more games are close. 

Pro tip: Examine the spread records of No. 1 seeds. If they win most of their games but are on a 4-10 spread run, they may be an overvalued public team.

We're No. 2! 

No. 2 tournament seeds get plenty of respect and will be betting favorites expected to advance several rounds. What they don't do is win National Championships very often. 

In 39 national championship games after the 1985 expanded pool, the No. 2 tournament seeds reached the National Championship game 13 times and only won it all five times. No. 2 Villanova won it all in 2016—and earned it, taking down No. 2 Oklahoma, No. 1 Kansas, and No. 1 North Carolina as a +2.5 underdog in the title game. But that's not the norm. 

In the second round, No. 2 seeds are vulnerable for the upset: 44 of 135 first-round winners got bounced in the second round, more than any other round. 

In 2021, Iowa failed to cover in the first round, beating Grand Canyon (86-74) as a 13.5-point favorite, and then got upset 95-80 by Oregon as a 5-point favorite. The Hawkeyes were No. 1 in the conference that season in scoring, but when offenses have poor shooting nights, it's vital that a team can lean on defense. That Iowa squad suffered losses where they surrendered 81, 80, 102, 99, 89, 95, and 82 points—with five defeats as a favorite. 

Strong defense is essential in March, no matter what seeding. 

No. 3 seeds: Win Some, Lose More

No. 3 seeds have a similar record to No. 2 seeds during the same time frame, making 11 title game appearances with their record in the championship game being 4-7. 

It's common to see No. 3 seeds get bounced at some point, even early. In 2024, Creighton won easily in the first round, had to survive a double-overtime victory in round two versus No. 11 Oregon, then lost to No. 2 seed Tennessee, 82-75, as a +3.5 underdog. A similar thing happened to No. 3 Illinois, beating Morehead State and Duquesne like they were supposed to, upsetting No. 2 Iowa State in a close one, 72-69, as a +1.5 dog before getting routed by No. 1 UConn, 77-52. That's typically how a lot of March Madness goes. However, No. 3 seed Baylor lost in the second round to No. 6 seed Clemson, 72-64, as a favorite, while No. 3 Kentucky got shocked by No. 14 Oakland, 80-76, as 13.5-point chalk. That's also typical, which only adds to the complexity when you bet NCAA March Madness. 

No. 4 Seed Blues

A No. 4 seed looks reasonably good on a tournament bracket but rarely wins a national championship or even gets to the title game. 

Only two No. 4 seeds have won the NCAA Tourney with Arizona (1997) and UConn (2023). It might seem difficult to believe now, but Connecticut had preseason March Madness National Championship odds of 80-to-1 to win the 2023 title and 16-to-1 entering March Madness. Two other No. 4 seeds made it to the title game but lost: Michigan (2013) and Syracuse (1996). That Michigan squad was 25-to-1 to win in it all in early March. They knocked off No. 1 seed Kansas in overtime (87-85) before losing the NCAA championship game to No. 1 seed Louisville (82-76) as a +4.5 underdog. 

Conference Tournament Champions 

College basketball ends the season in two grueling phases: conference tournament play, followed by the Big Dance. Teams on the bubble can play like mad during conference tournament action, knowing they need a strong showing to qualify for the NCAA tournament. Sometimes the intensity of qualification helps teams get hot at the right time, or they can wind up exhausted after winning their conference tournament. Because of this, some coaches put less emphasis on conference tournament play as the bigger goal is a deep tournament run and a national title. It's one of the things that makes March Madness thrilling for bettors. 

Pro tip: One proven bracket strategy is to identify some lower-seeded teams capable of pulling upsets in multiple rounds. 

History shows the top four seeds don't simply roll toward the Elite Eight. 

No. 1 seeds have a lot of advantages and reach the championship round the most, while seeds 2-4 often fall far short of the Final Four. Matchups on the court are a good way to predict who will advance, along with the March history of the head coaches. Other factors come into play, too, such as team defense, conference tournament exhaustion, or weak areas that will get exposed at some point. It's fun to be No. 1 during March Madness, but don't forget—it's a time when double-digit seeds and underdogs shine, and many high seeds fall like spring rain. 

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