During March Madness, the highest odds will be on a combination of the No. 1 seeds and teams that feature NBA-caliber talent. The higher the March Madness odds, the more likely an outcome is expected. Since the NBA draft started in 1947, 90% of first-round draft picks played college men's basketball at Division I schools. North Carolina has had the most No. 1 seeds, while ACC rival Duke has had the most players taken No. 1 overall.

But those factors don't guarantee championships.

Duke's Elton Brand was the No. 1 overall pick in 1999 after helping the Blue Devils to the National Championship game. As a 9.5-point favorite, Duke lost to Connecticut, 74-77, the biggest point-spread upset in March Madness championship game history. No. 1 overall pick Kyrie Irving missed Duke's 2011 NCAA tournament because of an injury. Still, Duke was a 9-point favorite over No. 5 seed Arizona but lost 94-77. Future No. 1 pick Zion Williamson anchored Duke's 2019 No. 1 seeded team but they weren't any kind of a March juggernaut, beating No. 9 seed Central Florida (77-76) as 13.5-point chalk, No. 4 seed Virginia Tech (75-73) as a 24.5-point favorite, before losing to Michigan State (68-67) as a favorite. Eventual No. 1 overall pick Paolo Banchero would get knocked out of the Elite Eight by No. 8 seed North Carolina (81-77) as a 4.5-point favorite. Duke ended the season 3-6 against the spread in March play.

The highest odds attract attention from fans and TV blowhards, but the best odds are the numbers that smart bettors take advantage of to win.

Sharp Eye & Cool Head

March basketball betting is a frenzy of activity, with games sometimes going on all day long. Most bettors are in it for the excitement, they want to watch, and they want to bet. But bettors in it for the thrill of having action on a game they're watching aren’t focused on turning a profit. Those bettors, and there are a lot of them, are a sports books' dream—they lose a lot.

If you value your wallet more than the excitement of watching, it's wise to approach March Madness with a sharp eye and calm thinking.

A savvy bettor focused on winning knows the matchups and the odds long before the tipoff. That requires studying stats, team strengths and weaknesses, and power rankings. A calm, collected, cool head is needed. College basketball games are a full-court frenzy for 40 minutes, but the real excitement for serious bettors comes afterward...collecting at the wagering window.

Dog Day Afternoon

March Madness is a time when underdogs shine. That doesn't mean a higher percentage of dogs win or even cover, but that there will be a slew of close games and unexpected upsets that shake the college basketball world, and many 2025 NCAA tournament brackets. There are many reasons for this. It can be challenging in college basketball to assess matchups accurately because there are so many conferences and teams. A big-name powerhouse program will be the favorite against small schools, but how big a favorite? And should they even be favored? Many small conferences feature star players who will go on to have outstanding NBA careers. Small schools might be intimidated or even roll over against well-known programs during the regular season, but not in the March tournament, where teams can put their schools on the map with a good effort or upset. Teams that earned an NCAA seed on Selection Sunday have made it on the heels of a strong regular season or winning their conference tournament. These young athletes want the ride to continue and will give it all they have, even as a double-digit underdog.

Best Odds with Coaches

Competent college basketball coaching makes a big difference. Some of the better coaches have an excellent winning percentage covering games. They're good at identifying their team strengths and can mask weak areas. The best coaches use time outs effectively to give starters a breather or regroup by changing strategy mid-game. The elite bench bosses also know how to motivate, an essential skill when working with young athletes.

Tony Bennett was a point guard at Wisconsin-Green Bay and still holds the record for career 3-point field goal accuracy (49.7%) in NCAA history. He had a great career as a coach and had a 123-95-3 spread mark during one stretch. Jay Wright had a run at Villanova, going 131-99-5 ATS, including 19-13-2 ATS in his final season. After he retired, Villanova went 14-20 ATS in 2022.

With 358 college basketball teams in Division I, a wide gap exists between contender, non-contender, and ugly coaching capabilities that appear on the scoreboard—and even at the betting window.

Little Man's Game

Professional basketball is best known as a big man's game, but March Madness is often more about the little guys.

Guard play is a considerable element during tournament time. Points guards are responsible for running the offense. They set plays and tempo, direct the flow of the offense, and are the first ones to decide where to pass the basketball. Turnovers are a good stat to gauge whether a point guard is exceptional or subpar. Quality point guard play is accentuated in March with teams playing and facing different styles, along with a slew of high-pressure games against top competition.

In 2008, North Carolina's offense ran through National Player of the Year forward Tyler Hansbrough and averaged 88.7 points but 14.7 turnovers. They got roasted in the Final Four, losing to Kansas, 84-66, turning it over 18 times. The following season, coach Roy Williams had guard Ty Lawson become more involved. Hansborough's scoring went down by two points per game, but the team scoring went up (90.2 ppg), and the turnovers went down (12.8 per game). The Tar Heels were a March Madness juggernaut, winning every game by double digits, including a NCAA championship win over No. 2 Michigan State, 89-72. In that title game, North Carolina won the turnover battle 21-to-7.

Big Name versus Little Knowns

We haven't seen a small college basketball school win a national championship since the 1960s with Loyola and UTEP. Indiana State (1979), Butler (2010, 2011), and San Diego State (2023) came close, winning in the Final Four. But with so many NCAA tournament teams, many small colleges are talented, well-coached, and driven, which is why surprises happen often. That's one of the appeals of March Madness.

In 2023, San Diego State's defense was 26th in the nation in points given up (63.6 per game) and fourth in field goal shooting allowed (37%). The Aztecs went 9-1 SU and 7-3 ATS in March, leaning on that great defense. SDSU knocked off Alabama (71-64) and Creighton (57-56) as underdogs. Offense goes hot and cold, but intense defense is something that teams can lean on for an entire game. That helps handicappers identify potential upsets and the best odds come tournament time.