2010 NFL Regular Season Team Wins Picks - 13 picks for 2010

The 2010 NFL regular season is nearly upon us. The excitement is building. We will be hitting the NFL preseason hard (six winning seasons out of eight) but before that, it's time to take advantage of the the NFL Season Wins bets.

Every year I predict NFL season performance (regular season win totals). Based on the performance (59% on 61 picks with only one losing season including 62% (16-10 on Best Bets), this is becoming one of the must-haves for serious NFL bettors. While most people don't pay attention to these bets, make no mistake - this is one of the best NFL betting opportunities available!

NFL Team Wins Totals - A great opportunity
Why are betting NFL season win totals such a great opportunity? Primarily because so few people put in the time and effort to make these types of NFL picks. Of the few that do put in time on these predictions, I believe that no one looks at them as scientifically as I do. Simply put, no one puts in the effort I do in predicting season win totals and the results bear this out.

For these reasons, I have hit 61% on by Best Bets and 59% overall on my season win totals picks the past five years (9-3 in 2005, 9-4 in 2006, 6-5 in 2007 and 8-5 in 2008 and 4-8 in 2009).

On my highest-rated picks (3-5 unit), I am 16-10and I have seven of these this season.

These season win totals picks have become part of my official NFL picks that have have resulted in over 146 units of profit overall with my premium picks. $100 bettors have turned a $10,000 bankroll into $37,361 - a 274% increase in eight seasons using Wunderdog NFL picks.

2010 NFL Predictions - Team Win Totals

On to this year's picks. This season I have 13 season-wins picks. Below are seven of these (my 2-unit selections). The remaining seven selections (all 3-5 unit picks) are free to NFL season subscribers or can be ordered separately through September 9th, 2010 for $39 here.

Lines below are from Diamond Sportsbook.

Baltimore Ravens OVER 10 wins (+105) - 2 units
The Ravens dropped to nine wins last season after an 11-win season in 2008. This season, Vegas has split the difference, predicting ten wins for Baltimore. I think they actually get more than that. This team lost seven games with five of them coming by a field goal or less. This defense is still stout but the thing most don't realize is that this offense is coming on very strong. In fact, last year the Ravens offense carried this team into the playoffs. It was the first time in 13 years that the offense out-ranked the defense. And, with a good draft and the acquisition of Anquan Boldin, along with continued maturity of Joe Flacco and Ray Rice, this offense will likely be better than the 2009 version. Five of their seven losses in 2009 came by a combined 16 points so their 9-7 record is misleading. They beat teams last year 48-3, 34-3, 31-7 and 30-7 while only suffering two bad losses (Green Bay and Cincinnati). Look for the Ravens to dominate this season, notching 11+ regular-season wins.

Cleveland Browns OVER 5.5 wins (-105) - 2 units
With all the LeBron hoopla this summer, you'd forget this town has a professional football team. Unfortunately for them, they do. This Browns team is 59-117 since its inception. Brady Quinn and Derek Anderson are out and Jake Delhomme is in. If Delhomme can find anything close to his form from his Super Bowl years, he will have a positive impact. Mike Holmgren will have a positive impact on this team. That may be enough to get them to improve by at least one game over last season. In addition, Jerome Harrison has proved himself a dangerous back (he put up games of 286, 148 and 127 yards to close out the season last year). And then there is always Josh Cribbs who seems to be good for a win or two a season just by himself. I like Cleveland to find a way to 6+ wins.

Oakland Raiders UNDER 6 wins (+110) - 2 units
No team has been as futile as the Oakland Raiders the past seven years. They have won just 16 games the past five seasons and have had seven straight seasons with no more than five wins. Now they are supposed to win 6+ games? I don't buy it. Thankfully they put JaMarcus Russell out of his misery, marking the end of the line for one of the NFL's all-time draft busts. He put up 4,083 passing yards, 18 TDs and 23 interceptions in his career, earning him $39 million. Hmmmm. In comes Jason Campbell who couldn't get it done in Washington and he doesn't have any kind of supporting cast. This team won 5 games in 2009 but it really wasn't that good. Their pythagorean win total (a statistic devised to remove luck and give you a true sense of a team) had them winning 2.8 games last season. So they weren't even as good as their meager 5-11 record would indicate. The problems with this team (management, processes, etc) are all still there. I look for an eighth straight season at five or fewer wins.

Carolina Panthers OVER 7 wins (-105) - 2 units
For the second straight year, the team entered the draft without a first-round pick. Head coach John Fox stated that his team is "on a budget" and they let go a lot of good vets including Julius Peppers. They got Jimmy Clausen for a steal in the draft at #48. While he may make an impact this year, we can't count on it. So why the optimism? This is a contract year for Fox and he will pull out the stops to win this year. This team still has the most feared running game in the league with the tandem of DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart. And, Steve Smith is still lining up at receiver. Throwing to him will be Matt Moore or Jimmy Clausen. I expect it to be Moore and with him under center the final five games of the season last year, this team went 4-1. Overall, the Panthers won eight games in 2009 and there's no reason, after jettisoning their mistake-prone QB, that they can't repeat that this year.

Detroit Lions OVER 5 wins (-135) - 2 units
The Lions went from 0-16 to 2-14. Can they make a bigger leap this season? I think so. This will be the second year for blue-chipper Mathew Stafford. They added the best player in the draft in Ndamukong Suh who is certain to have an immediate impact. Also added to the DL are proven veterans Kyle Vanden Bosch and Corey Williams. All of a sudden, this DL looks formidable. On offense, Nate Burleson was added to a set of skill players that has a lot of potential (Stafford, Kevin Smith, Calvin Johnson). With two games vs. the Bears and one each vs. Tampa Bay, St. Louis, Washington and Buffalo, there is reason to believe the lowly Lions can turn a corner this season. I like them to win 6+ games in 2010.

New York Jets OVER 9.5 wins (-130) - 2 units
It seems a lot of people are getting tired of the Jets. They over-performed in 2009 and there has been a lot of hype in the off-season And of course, their loud-mouth head coach is out there again predicting greatness. They have a great offense, a potential great quarterback and they added some big names in LaDanian Tomlinson, Santonio Holmes, Antonio Cromartie and Jason Taylor. While many look at this team as "lucky to make the playoffs," I saw a team last postseason that was built to win in the NFL. They crushed a very good Bengals team and won on the road in San Diego before falling to a better Colts team. I see the Jets improving this season to a double-digit win team. Mark Sanchez has a full season under his belt and showed he was wise beyond his years last season. He has Braylon Edwards, LT and Santonio Holmes to throw to. Rex Ryan will settle for nothing less than winning, so expect no let down from this team after a breakout 2009. The Jets were better than a 9-game winner in 2009 (bad luck during a 1-6 stretch hid the strength of this team). They had some good luck down the stretch and in the playoffs and they aren't quite as good as they looked at the end of last year. But, this is certainly a team that can win 10+ games.

Get my top season win picks!
I have seven more season-wins picks - all 3-5 unit season total picks (these top-rated selections have gone 16-10 lifetime). Get them through September 9, 2010 free with an NFL season subscription or get them separately for $39 here.

I've hit over 59% lifetime on my NFL preseason picks.
Check out my philosophy on NFL preseason picks.