Washington at Jacksonville

What's wrong with Mike Shanahan? He takes Donovan McNabb out of a game in the crucial two-minute drill, providing a slew of excuses. Then he awards him a 5-year contract. Then, in week 15, he benches the 6-time Pro Bowler again in favor of Rex Gossman, who will start the last two games as well. Shanahan appears to have lost it. In any case, the Skins’ offense has improved some and Grossman did a decent job last week. Their defense ranks dead last in yards but in points, they aren't horrible (24.5 per game). Guess what team allows more per game? You guessed it. The Jags have given up 26.1 per game, good for fifth worst in the league. Despite all the drama in Washington, the Skins have won five games and lost six by 5 points or less this season. Turn a few of their close losses around and they are 9-5 instead of 5-9. Jacksonville is 8-6, but of their eight wins, five have come by 7 points or less, meaning in 11 out of 14 games they wouldn't have covered this number. The Jags have actually been outscored on average this year by over 3 points per game and that includes their home games. The bottom line here is that this number is too high. Over the past three seasons, Jacksonville is 2-10 ATS following a game in which they allowed 30+ points and they are also 1-8 ATS as a favortie of 3.5 to 9.5 points. I like the Skins plus the points.