Tennessee at Dallas

The Dallas Cowboys are arguably the most talented team in the NFL position for position, yet they continue to struggle offensively although they have improved every week and may have had a break-through last game. Dallas has a trio of quality running backs, a very good quarterback, and good targets, as well as a solid offensive line. I think OC Garrett and Coach Phillips had not been managing this team properly, and it showed. The Dallas offense has scored 17 points or less in seven of their last 13 games. Those numbers are both below the NFL average, and the Cowboys certainly do not have a below-average offense. I think they get some points this game. But so will Tennessee. The Titans, since their 0-6 dreadful start a year ago, have only lost two of their last 14 games by more than one possession, and this season have averaged just shy of 25 points per game. They will find some room on the scoreboard here vs. the Cowboys, a team allowing 64% completions and 5.7 yards per play on the season. The Titans have been extremely good in spots like this as they are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 posted as a dog from 3.5-10. Dallas has been too inconsistent to buy into them as a TD favorite, and the numbers bear that out. In their last 16 games as a 7+ point favorite, Dallas is just 6-10 ATS. They have also not been able to put together back-to-back defensive efforts, showing at 4-10 ATS after allowing 15 or less in their previous game. The Titans are off their bye week which has historically shown them to play high-scoring games at 12-5-1 to the OVER, while Dallas is 11-4 to the OVER in their last 15 in the role of a favorite within the range of 3.5-10. Under Jeff Fisher, this team is 22-8 OVER after allowing 300+ passing yards last game and 28-15 OVER vs. poor defensive teams that allow 5.65+ yards per play. I like Tennessee and the OVER.