Seattle at San Francisco

The Seattle Seahawks are off to a suprisingly good start at 4-2. They come into this one with the same record as San Francisco, who lost last week in spectacular fashion to the Giants. All 4-2 teams are not created equal. While the Seahawks are 4-2, they have played six games with the line at no more than 3.5 in either direction. They have averaged playing to a line of +1, which basically says on average they have played all toss-up games and should be 3-3. That is the record they would have if the replacement refs did not botch a call that went in their favor against the Packers. In close games (those decided by under a touchdown), Seattle is 3-1. When you see 75% wins on close games, you have to be weary about the skill vs. luck factor. And, let us not forget that Seattle is averaging just 18.3 points per game (15.0 per game in three road games). Now they face the best defense in the league so it could be very hard for the Seahawks to muster points tonight. The Niners are a different story, and a much better team. They are angry off a loss, while Seattle comes in off a huge emotional win over New England. The Seahawks last emotional win was followed by a 6-point loss in St. Louis. In his NFL coaching career, Pete Carroll is 1-9 straight-up on the road following an upset win. San Francisco doesn't take to losing very well as they come back with fire in their next game. Let's take a look at what they have done following their last five regular-season losses. They held their next opponent to 7 points (Arizona), 8 (Cincinnati), 0 (St. Louis), 3 points (Pittsburgh, and 0 (New York Jets). That means that after a loss, San Francisco’s last five opponents scored a grand total of 18 points. Of course in those five games, the Niners went 5-0. You may look at this pick with disdain because of the heavy chalk. But remember that sports wagering is all about value, not the line itself. As a favorite of more than a touchdown, the league is 680-128 straight-up since December 24, 1996. Over that same period, the Niners are 28-0 straight-up when laying over a touchdown. Great teams rarely lose games like this - especially off a bad loss, and against a team off an emotional win. Seattle is solid enough to find a way to cover the spread. So, I believe the right play here is on the Niners on the moneyline.