New York at New England

When you first look at this game, your gut has to be telling you that the Pats will win by 25+ points. That may very well be true. But, more often than not, what looks too easy to be true usually is. The Belichick and Brady era in New England has been one of the best of all-time, but as time marches on the margin for error is beginning to slip away. This has been a high-level team for a long time, and it was New England that was usually coming out on the winning side of close games. However, the Patriots are 0-3 in them this season, leaving them at 3-3 instead of the old days where they would likely be 5-1 or better. It also shows up on the other end, when it comes to taking down big numbers. The Pats are just 3-9 ATS when favored by -9 or more. The Jets have some warts, but they are also still a highly-competitive team, especially when it comes to a divisional rivalry game against the Patriots. This is simply an important game for New York and when you are getting double-digits in a divison rivalry game, you have to think long and hard about backing the favorite. The Jets have some momentum coming into this one as they finally put together a good game on both sides of the ball vs. Indianapolis winning 35-9. Also, the fact that they played Houston to a 6-point game just two weeks ago tells me that they are ready to compete in this one. The Patriots’ offense is pretty consistent, but after allowing 90 yards rushing or less in their previous game, the defense has led to a 6-18 ATS mark in their next game. Division favorites of more than 9 points that are coming off a road upset loss are just 16-35 ATS since 1989. This one seems super easy - so go the other way and expect the Jets to fight and claw to keep it within this huge number.