New York at New England

The New England Patriots have had their way with just about everyone in the second half of the season, hanging 30+ on each of their last eight opponents. Over that half-season span, this team scored over 100 points more than the Carolina Panthers scored - all season long. That makes the mid-40s total here look very small to the average bettor. Not surprisingly, the public is hitting the OVER. I am in a different camp. This isn't just any playoff game. This is an intense game between bitter division rivals. The team lining up on the other side gave up 45 points to the Pats last time out and it's personal for them. They will be motivated as much as any pro athlete could be to defend their honor. If there is anyone that knows The Brady/Belichick offensive machine it is the Jets. This is a Jets defense that seemed to wake up after the Pats hit them with 45, as they have since held four of their last five opponents to 17 points or less. The Jets have frequently made Tom Brady look bad. Looking back at the last 10 meetings, Brady and the Pats have scored 9, 20, 14, and 14 points in four of the games. In the four, Brady had all of one TD pass and three INTs. The Jets don't always stop him, but they are as capable as anyone. The After allowing 45 last time out, I'm sure the defense is ready with their "A" game. New England has been playing incredible football and while they are a great team, they have also been the recipient of some fortunate luck. During their big eight game winning streak since the loss to Cleveland, New England has won the turnover battle 24-to-1. That kind of ratio never holds and if they don't win the turnover battle here, they could find themselves in trouble. The Jets are 7-2 straight up on the road this year and they are 9-2 straight-up this season when facing a poor pass defense (allowing 61%+ completions). Under Rex Ryan, this team is 8-4 straight-up as an underdog! Over the last three seasons, New York is 10-3 straight-up when revenging a loss. In 2009, no one gave the New York Giants a chance to beat the 17-0 Patriots in the Super Bowl. The Giants came out with great defense, put Brady on his butt, and won that game. There's enough of a chance that that could happen here that I'm taking another flyer on a big underdog upset call. I also think this game goes UNDER the total. While everyone is raving about Brady and the kind of year he has had, the Pats defense has silently held four of the last five opponents to 7 points or less. While they rank 25th in yards allowed, they rank 8th in fewest points allowed. New England is 11-3-1 to the UNDER in their last 15 home playoff games. They are also a perfect 10-0 to the UNDER in the Belichick era at home after a bye. Take the Jets to win outright and the UNDER.