New Orleans at Atlanta

This is a big game with the division title on the line. The 12-2 Atlanta Falcons host the Super Bowl Champion New Orleans Saints who are on an eight-game winning streak. The Saints have covered their last six against the number. The Falcons just don't lose here. With Matt Ryan taking snaps, they are 19-1 at home. The public is pretty evenly split on the side but they like the OVER. My computer matchup for this game likes Atlanta to squeak out a close win. After getting touched up for 30+ at around midseson, the Falcons have tightened things up on the defensive end. In their last seven games, only one team has scored more than 21 against them (Tampa Bay got to 24 despite being held to just 324 total yards). The Saints have been better defensively this season as they have held seven opponents to less than 20 points. Contrast that with last season when they allowed 20 or more 12 times! This sets up as a statement game for both teams. The Saints want to show the Falcons they are still the team to beat, while the Falcons want to show the Saints their run is over. That usually makes for tightly played intense battles and lower scoring games than expected. The Saints are now 8-1 to the UNDER in their last nine division games. The Falcons are 20-7-1 to the UNDER after allowing less than 250 total yards in their last game. I like this game to come in UNDER the total.