New England at Chicago

The Patriots are dialed in right now and coming off a huge beatdown over their division rival the New York Jets on Monday Night. The whole nation saw this team absolutely embarrass a good Jets team. Prior to that, they put up 45 on Detroit, beat the Colts (scoring 31 in the process) and hang 39 on another Super Bowl caliber team in the Steelers. Right now no one wants to fade this Pats team. They are poised to take homefield advantage in the AFC for the entire playoffs. The numbers look scary for the Pats on offense and it looks impossible to slow them down. They are going to become a good fade against the number at some point and I'm banking that it starts this week. The fact is, teams that score 45 or more points in consecutive weeks are 36.4% winners in their next game ATS and 33% on the road as a favorite. Sometimes we get blinded by what we just saw and it jades out our perspective on what we think of them in their next game. The Bears are playing as good defensively as any team in football right now. There have been just two teams all season that have topped the 20 point mark against them. They have enough offense to score on a weak New England defense that is ranked 31st in yards allowed. The Pats have not fared well playing after Monday Night as they have not covered any of their last four. The Bears are sitting at 6-1 ATS in their last seven in the role of a dog. I like Chicago here.