Game Preview
Which of these teams is a bigger dissapointment? After entering the season with high hopes coming off playoff seasons in 2003, both trail every other team in their divisions and both sit at 4-8 SU and 4-8 ATS. The Chiefs and Titans are both banged up. KC is without Priest Holmes and Tennessee again wonders whether Steve McNair will be healthy enough to go. Kansas City is 2-7-1 ATS in their last ten Monday night appearances while Tennessee is 1-6 ATS of a straight-up loss. While there are no playoff implications in this game, both teams want to win badly to make a terrible season just a bit less terrible. While it appears on the surface that neither team is a good pick, I like one of these two tonight.
Matchup
Tennessee and Jeff Fisher hit a new low last week. They went to the gadget plays in a ludicrous way and still got absolutely hammered by the Colts. I predicted the Colts might cover that 55 point O/U by themselves and they nearly did. Priest Holmes won't play in this game but it won't matter much given that we are getting excellent line value as a result. Derrick Blaylock (7 TDs in last 6 games) has been great in Holmes' absence and if he is too banged up to go, Larry Johnson (118 yards / 2 TDs last week) can fill in adequately. This offensive line is top-2 in the league so most anyone can run behind it and the KC-run "system." The Chiefs put up 419 yards per game (2nd in the NFLP)and over 28 points per game. With the talent on this KC offense, and the injuries that have plagued the Titans this season on defense, KC is going to just stride down the field in this one - continually. We saw Indianapolis put up 51 on the Titans last week. KC could do something similar tonight against a defense that has surrendered an average of 41 points over the past two games.
Injuries
I guess the info on Priest Holmes' website last week was accurate when it said he was done for the season. The Chiefs made it official this week. Kansas City is also without defensive end Vonnie Holliday and center Chris Bober is doubtful. As bad as the injuries are for the Chiefs, they look like nothing compared to the Titans. Tennessee continues to struggle with injuries. McNair is questionable (again) but the bigger problem area is their defense. Corners Samari Rolle and Andre Woolfolk are out as is free safety Lance Schulters and MLB Rocky Calmus. I won't even go into the other questionable Titans (including Chris Brown). They have a total of 17 players out or questionable for this game.
Systems/Trends/Angles
There are a few key trends here favoring Kansas City. Road underdogs after gaining 450 or more total yards in their previous game are 44-17 (72%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Also, road teams that have scored 30+ points two weeks in a row if they are off a road game are 8-5 ATS over the past three years, 3-2 this year and 76% over the past ten years. Finally, visiting dogs of 7 or less vs. an opponent that has allowed a lot of points two games in a row are 6-4 ATS this year and 65% overall.
The Bottom Line
If you haven't noticed, I think the Chiefs are the better team here. They are getting points as a bonus. Kansas City's offense is one of the top three in the league. Tennessee's offense is mediocre at best this season and their defense, so good one year ago, has been decimated by injury and just isn't very good. I expect Kansas City to score at-will tonight. Can their defense hold Tennessee at all? I think they will be able to stop them enough to allow the Chiefs to win this game outright. We'll make the Chiefs a 3-star pick tonight.
***Kansas City +1.5 (-110) vs. Tennessee