Jacksonville at Indianapolis

The Colts have scored 30+ points in back-to-back games now for the first time all season. This is still a good offensive team, but even in the days where 30 points for the Colts was the norm, the large totals never seemed to live up to their billing. This is a team that played against a posted total of 49 vs. New England earlier this year, so the only reason this one is in the same area is the Colts last two games. Indy has actually been a 67% UNDER team when facing a total of more than 48 in their last 24 times as they are 16-8 to the UNDER. The Jags defense was bit leaky last week vs. the Raiders as they allowed 31 points. But, that really just drives the total artifically higher for this game. The reality is the Jags have been playing good defense overall with their previous five opponents averaging just 18.2 ppg. The Jags have only gone OVER in two of their last nine on the road when facing a team with a winning home record. The Colts are UNDER in seven of their last ten games vs. a team with a .500 or better road record. I like this one to fall short of the total.