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Indianapolis at New England

January 16, 2005
img4:30 PM Eastern
Premium Pick

Ahhh. Saved the best for last. How cold is it going to be in New England this Sunday? I'm serious. This could be the difference in what to me, presents the toughest game to call. Right now the prediction is sunny and high 30s. Unless the weather is horrible, I expect the Colts to pull this one out. New England has been their nemesis. The Colts have travelled to New England three times within the past year and lost all three times. Peyton Manning has heard all throughout his career that he can't win the big games and he can't win on the road, especially outdoors in cold weather. He has a chance to silence critics on all fronts this week. And, I think he's in a zone enough to do it. Manning is 0-6 in Foxboro in his career. Do the Patriots just have Indianapolis' number? Maybe. But, if the Colts can just avoid the killer turnovers, I think they are a better team than the Pats. In last year's AFC title game, Indianpolis turned the ball over on ALL four of their first half possessions (and they still only lost by 10 points). Eariler this year, the Colts should have beaten New England but again turned it over three times. I believe Indianpolis is on a mission and they now have enough experience to pull this one out. I don't think they'll be intimidated, despite their recent performance here. They are playing just too good to care about who lines up on the other side of the ball. And, they have the new advantage of the rules changes implemented primarily as a result of the title game last year. New England defensive backs will not be able to play as physical as they did in that game one year ago. If you could give one reason why New England won that game, their aggressive play against the New England receivers was it. The fact that they can't do it this year is HUGE! Pile on top of that the fact that New England will be without BOTH starting corners, and you have a recipe for a Manning feast. The only thing holding me back on this is that this is New England. They always find a way to win. They have the best coach in the league who is the master at game planning. He's found ways to frustrate and beat Manning time after time. But, I'm going with my gut here. Even masterminds fail once in a while. Despite the home field advantage and the aura that is New England, I think Peyton is just a runaway train right now that can't be stopped. He's too good and too smart. He'll find a way to help the Colts advance. One star pick on Indianapolis.

1 unit on Indianapolis +2 (-110) (risk 1 to return 1.91)
Result:
LOSS
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