This pick was released to clients on July 10, 2012 at 5:50PM ET.
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Houston at Indianapolis

November 14, 2004
img1:00 PM Eastern
Premium Pick

Indianapolis' offense, and more specifically Peyton Manning, is on fire. They are gaining over 418 yards per game. But, their defense is allowing 417 per game. Opposing quarterbacks are completing passes at a 71% clip. How can you lay 9 points on a team with a defense that is THAT bad? Houston is still not getting the respect they deserve. They are 4-4 SU and 4-4 ATS including 2-1 against the number in games in which they are getting over 6 points. Don't read too much into Indianapolis' respectable defensive performance last week. The Vikings were without their top receiver and top running back and the Colts still failed to cover the spread at home on Monday night. The Texans are off a beating from the Denver Broncos. Again, don't read too much into that one either. The Texans had a team-record 109 yards in penalties and fell behind big early. It happens. In their other seven games, the Texans have outscored their opponents on average. I look at the loss to Denver as somewhat of a fluke and not representative of what this Texan squad is all about. Houston's 5th-ranked passing offense should shred Indianapolis' pass defense, which is dead last in the league. Manning will also have a huge day but I think the Texans keep this one closer than nine. Over the past three seasons, Houston is 6-1 ATS in road games after a loss by 10+ points. Underdogs off a large loss when playing a team that has allowed tons of points for multiple weeks cover at a clip of about 67%. Two stars here on the Texans. Bet 110 to win 100 on Houston +9.

2 units on Houston +9 (-110) (risk 2 to return 3.82)
Result:
LOSS
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