Green Bay at Atlanta

The Atlanta Falcons may not look like your typical 13-3 team, but here they are as the No. 1 seed ready to take on the Green Bay Packers after a week of rest. The Falcons have below average numbers on both sides of the ball, but they find a way to win. There was another team this year that was exactly the opposite - the San Diego Chargers who ranked at or near the top all year on offense and defense, but they will be watching this one from home, as they didn't even make the playoffs. So why is Atlanta 13-3? They are 13-3 because they are just the opposite of San Diego. While San Diego would fumble away red-zone opportunities and make special team gaffes, the Falcons don't beat themselves as they committed just six turnovers in their seven biggest games this year, while they turned the opponent over 12 times. They also play very well on special teams, and they play you even and wait for you to make a mistake then beat you. They also have a clutch QB that can rescue a victory from defeat. The Falcons are 20-2 at home with Matty Ice taking snaps. The Packers have self-destructive tendencies. They committed 18 penalties vs. Chicago and lost. They had three turnovers vs. the Lions and lost. They had New England on the ropes, but mismanaged the final 23 seconds of the game and lost. They scored to tie the game vs. the Falcons with under a minute to play and allowed a big return and a FG vs. this same Atlanta team and lost. The Packers are good, but they don't always play smart which is one reason they have been left wanting in the playoffs. They produced a very nice win last week vs. Philadelphia but it seems everything has to go right for them to win. The Falcons are good and always play smart, that is why they are 13-3. The Falcons have owned the Packers at 5-1 ATS in their last six. Atlanta is one 3-point loss vs. teh Saints away from finishing the regular season on a 10-0 run. I don't see Jason Starks sneaking up on anyone here and one game does not a running game make. As good as the perception is, the Packers are a losing road team (4-5 away from home this season). I like the Falcons to win and cover here. I also like the OVER. The Falcons have played OVER to a 19-6-1 mark after gaining 350+ in their last game, and 6-2 to the OVER vs. a winning team. Overall they have played just two games UNDER the total in their last 11 games. This season when the toatl is in this range (42-49), the Falcons are 9-1 to the OVER. Atlanta finds a way in a high-scoring game.