Denver at Kansas City

Last week we faded Denver as I mentioned that the hype-wagon on Denver has reached fever-pitch and there is line value going the other way. The game played out perfectly as the Broncos got their big lead, but failed to cover. So, we get value again fading them as they are still viewed as a dominant team with an unstoppable offense. To make things better, they are facing the lowly Chiefs. Who wants a piece of the Kansas City Chiefs right now? Gamblers are predictably lining up on Denver here at over 75%, despte a huge spread for a division game. It is the consummate ugly game, and the perfect storm. Peyton Manning has been MVP-like so far, and the Denver defense is coming alive as well. Denver has five straight wins by an average margin of 13.6 points per game, and now they get to take on a 1-9 team that is also 0-5 at home. Most think that this one will be over by halftime, but I have seen this many times before, and ugly often wins (or more correctly, covers) in the NFL. The fact is that ugly on the blind, playing all home dogs in the NFL of 7.5 points or more are 169-128-4 ATS since 1989. That is 57% and something any capper would be proud to have earned. The stats are overwhelmingly in favor of Denver here, so to sit here and make a case for the Chiefs is not something that would make a whole lot of sense. What makes sense is jumping on this ugly dog. Hold your nose, and go all-in on Kansas City.