Cleveland at Baltimore

We all remember Jamal Lewis' shredding of this Browns defense last year to the tune of 500 yards (nearly 1/4th of his total season rushing yards!). But, that was 2003. This is 2004. Players in the NFL have pride and don't give up easily (well, except for the Miami Dolphins). This is one reason the Browns held Lewis to just 57 yards on 20 carries in game one of this matchup in week one. Think the Browns are satisfied with that? No way. They are going to do everything in their power to shut him down again in front of the national crowd on Sunday night. While they conquered Lewis at home, they have yet to atone for the 295 yard performance they allowed Lewis on this field last year. The Cleveland D will be coming to play. The Browns offense is clicking, baby. Lee Suggs has emerged as a solid back and Jeff Garcia is playing very well. Over the last two games, Cleveland has rushed for over 300 yards and put up 65 points. While they are 2-2 over their past four games, the two losses have come against a couple of pretty good teams that happen to be a combined 13-1 (Philly and Pittsburgh). They nearly beat the Eagles. The reason they lost those games was not offense, obviously. It was defense. The Browns surrendered 34 points in each of those games. But Baltimore couldn't score 34 points if their life depended on it. Kyle Boller, especially without injured tight end Todd Heap, is completely ineffective. He's passing for 122 yards per game - last in the league. The absence of Raven's Pro Bowl tackle Jonathan Ogden is making matters even worse than last season. The Ravens defense is their only saving grace. They are holding the opposition to 14.3 points per game - best in the league. But, that's artifically low as the Ravens have held three particular opponents under 10 points. These opponents (Buffalo, Cincinnati and Washington) haven't been scoring on anyone. Cleveland was 2-4 last year and turned it on to reach the playoffs. They seem to be entering a similar zone right now and are on the upswing. The Browns have gotten better as the season has worn on while the Ravens have gotten worse. There's a trend that applies here that involves teams off a small loss and a bye when facing a divisional opponent that is 11-0 ATS. Baltimore doesn't deserve to be this big of a favorite. Bet 275 to win 250 on the Browns +6 and 150 to win 330 on the Browns straight-up.